• Deej

Week 11 Best Bets and Analysis | November 20, 2022

Let's go! Another great NFL Sunday is upon us and I am back to bring you the public betting trends you need to hear to win more of your bets. My name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. There is data there, information that can help us win more bets, and I want to provide it. I find it so interesting to learn when to fade the public and when to bet with them, because it is an avenue in sports betting no one has really touched. We do this every week, and we only get more information with every game played. I also have a podcast where I discuss these trends and break them down with my Happy Hour Sports co-owners, so check that out for the most information! If you like this content please Subscribe (free) to the website, follow me on Twitter, and keep supporting us! It helps a ton.

Hope you were able to take a part of our 7-2 Sunday last week. I said it on the podcast, but it felt like an easier week and it may have been because of the awesome trends we have been tracking. I will get into those later in the article. The article plays have been great, and we are getting feedback on Twitter, Reddit, and Tik Tok that you are winning using the information I provide. That makes me so happy and gives me all the reason to keep pushing out the information and content. Thank you for being here with us. Even if you are not taking my plays, I know you are learning to use the trends to your own advantage. Here is how you could have used the trends to find some winners last week:

  • Packers had 66% of the money (15-4 ATS b/w 65-69% money) and covered.

  • Vikings had a 15% sharp differential (35-20 ATS) and covered (GEICO Trend).

  • Vikings had 73% of the money (40-28 ATS >65% money) and covered.

  • Lions/Bears 26% sharp differential on over (10-1 over with greater than 20% sharps toward over) and game went over.

  • Broncos/Titans 8% sharp differential on under (60-36 when sharps are on the under)

Every week there is something to learn from and we are able to gather more data. It is really important to highlight how these change and how they indicate how games are likely to turn out based on how the public is betting. However, no trend is perfect and I want that to be clear. I use the trends after I have looked through the slate and picked where I believe games will end up. If the trends disagree with me I will stay away, but if they agree then it gives me more confidence.

I think we are getting the hang of this as through week 10 people have been telling me the trends are working for them too. That makes me so excited and gives me exactly what I need to keep providing the information for everyone. Anyways, I know you guys are here to learn more about the public betting trends so let's get into those! A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to focus on the important ones here. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter! I am very active there and tweet out any changes to my plays since the public bet % and money % can change at any minute.

  • The public is 67-79 ATS to date. They are still floating around even (7-7 last week) from their 10-5 best week of the year in Week 8. From previous weeks, it's clear that the pubic cannot string together good weeks without a bad one between it. This to me gives signals that the public will likely be mediocre or bad, but take that with a grain of salt (not saying to blindly fade the public). Basically, their week of reckoning is coming. As the weeks have gone on, the ranges for the public have neutralized to nearly even, but I highlighted on this weeks pod we should try to focus in on how the public/money/sharps are doing recently. Over the last 6 weeks, between the range of 50-54% (i.e. low confidence) the public is 8-14. Keep in mind the Titans had 52% of the bets on Thursday, but the Titans are actually really good when the public bets on them (6-1 ATS). Here are all the teams the public is on (as of 10 am EST), with bolded ones between that low confidence range:

Eagles -6.5, Rams +2.5, Bears +3, Commanders -3, Jets +3.5, Giants -3, Panthers +13, Bills -7.5, Raiders +3, Steelers +4, Vikings +1.5, Chargers +5.5, 49ers -8

  • The key money percentage trend include teams with greater than 65% of the money/handle being 40-28 ATS and teams specifically in the range of 65-69% of the money being 15-4 ATS to date. It's a tight range to fit into, so it is important to consider this as close to gametime as possible. Three team currently fit the 10-1 trend and they are bolded, but here are teams that fit the greater than 65% criteria:

Colts +7, Saints -2.5, Bears +3, Texans +3.5, Patriots -3.5, Browns +8, Raiders +3, Steelers +4, Cowboys -1.5, Chargers +5.5

  • The Under is king this year when it comes to totals. When the money percentage is on the under, those games are 54-35 towards the under, when the sharps are on the under, those games are 60-36 to the under, and when the public is on the over, those games are 56-32 to the under. I love seeing the public on the over and the money on the under, based on the above trends it is clearly doing well. Aserisk on the Browns/Bills game because money couldve been placed before or after the location change...I am staying away from that one. Here are the sharps are on the under (bolded have public on over):

Rams/Saints, Bears/Falcons, Jets/Patriots, Lions/Giants, Ravens/Panthers, Browns/Bills*, Raiders/Broncos, Steelers/Bengals, Chiefs/Chargers, Niners/Cardinals

  • We have been killing it on the few overs we pick thanks to tracking the sharp differential. Also I have to shoutout the public this week because they finally went positive on the over! 2-1! I doubt that will happen again, but shoutout the public. The only positive over trend to date I have is that when the sharp differential is greater than 20% towards the over, those games are 17-10 to the over. Specifically, between the range of 20% and 30% overs are 10-1 (!!). Sadly as of right now, only two game have close to greater than 20% sharps toward the over: Eagles/Colts, Commanders/Texans

  • I should also highlight the public is 32-56 when on the over this year and 4-20 when they are on it more than 65%. This needs no explanation, fade the public's overs. Here are those games (bolded are >65%):

Eagles/Colts, Bears/Falcons, Commanders/Texans, Lions/Giants, Browns/Bills*, Bengals/Steelers, Cowboys/Steelers, Chiefs/Chargers, Niners/Cardinals

  • Lastly, my favorite spread trend throughout the year has been when the sharp differential is 15% or more. I have dubbed it the GEICO trend on the podcast and one day it will catch on or they will sponsor us. This trend was 19-2 through week 4, but through week 10 has moved to 35-20 ATS. So, clearly some regression. Looking deeper into that trend we can find that specifically between 20 and 30% sharp differentials, teams are 20-8 ATS (above 30% is 1-4 ATS). Something that is very profitable, and should be considered for everyone's bets. This is the updated GEICO trend. An important thing to note about it is that the sharp differential, no matter the value, is 75-71 ATS to date. So, anything below the Geico trend (15%) is 39-47 ATS. When placing your bets, please consider the sharp differential. As of right now, here are the teams that fit the Geico trend (bolded teams have between 20-30%): Colts +7, Saints -2.5, Texans +3.5, Patriots -3.5, Lions +3, Browns +8, Steelers +4, Cowboys -1.5, Chargers +5.5

Note that I am writing this around 10 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. All trends are subject to regression. I will continue to say I am betting with these trends because I love tracking them and find them fascinating. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider subscribing (for free) to help us out!

If you need a book, we are excited to announce our first partnership! ABC Islands and Happy Hour Sports are working together to provide bettors the best place to place their bets. We are still working on a bigger announcement, but I want everyone to have access to their book before the games today. It's a really exciting time for us as well because we are going to be able to get public betting data for this book, specifically! Something that has been a goal of mine since I started. Check out their awesome introductory deals and use HappyHour as the promotional code, here!

The Plays Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), Total 48.5 The Chicago Bears have scored 30 and 32 points in their last two weeks. The Falcons on the other hand have scored a combined 32 points. The Bears are on a roll and the Falcons only route to win this game is to control the ball and keep it on the ground. These are two bottom tier defenses and bottom tier offenses, I just do not see the bears keep up the high scoring games that they have put up recently. It's also becoming classic here for Sharpen the Public listeners and my article readers, take the unders when the public is on the over and money is on the under. This is a high total too. First game is an underminer. Play: Under 48.5, -110 (1u) New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-3.5), Total: 38.5 The New York Jets are a surprise to everyone this season. 6-3 ATS and 6-3 for the season. However, now they have to go into New England and take on the always difficult Patriots defense. PFF ranks the Jets as the number 1 defense with the Patriots having the number 10 defense. The surprise here though is that the Jets have the 32nd offense. The Patriots need a stand out game badly, and crushing the Jets at home would be a statement. The Patriots and Belichick have dominated this rivalry and I do not see that changing. Patriots also have the GEICO Trend AND are between 65-69% of the money, I love them here. Play: Patriots -3.5, -105 (1u) Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+4), Total 40.5 Similarly to the Patriots, the Steelers take on an old division foe at home, but are Dogs. It is so difficult to come into Pittsburgh and steel a game from Mike Tomlin, we saw it last week with the Saints. Kenny Pickett is coming into his own, and to me it is obvious he will have a great NFL career. The Steelers have had the 2nd hardest schedule to date, and they are still 4-4-1 ATS. The Bengals also have a history of not performing when they should. I see the Steelers defensive front being able to take advantage of the Bengals bad offensive line. The Steelers are currently right in the middle of our updated GEICO trend at 26%, which you know I love. We had them last week and we are rolling with them again. Play: Steelers +4, -112 (1u)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings (+1.5), Total 48.5

Similar to the Commanders, the Vikings had their win of the season last week in Buffalo. The books know the Cowboys are better, and that is why they are favored. However, the public does not quite know it. The public is confused on this line as its been sitting at 50% or 51% in favor of the Vikings. The Cowboys fit the updated GEICO trend and I love them in this spot to upset the hot Vikings. If you listen to my podcast, you will know I have not had any luck betting on or even against the Vikings, I just cannot read them. So, I am letting the sharps read this game for me. The Cowboys are going to Minnesota and show up the Vikings.

Play: Cowboys -1.5, -115 (1u)

Two Team 1pm Teaser: Eagles vs. Colts (+6.5) AND Commanders vs. Texans (+3.5)

This is a great sport to run with a Wong teaser in the 1 pm slate. Two games with low totals (45.5 and 41.5) with the Eagles in a bounce back spot and the Commanders in a too hype spot. Basically can get the Eagles just to win here, and we can get the Texans as large home dogs. I think they come out swinging against the Commanders who are on a short week, and coming off their win of the season. Sharp differential is heavy to the Commanders, and I don't like either team straight at their full spread, so adding in the teaser to improve value. Let's try to win our first one.

Play: 2 Team 6 pt Teaser, Eagles -0.5 AND Texans +9.5 , - 130 (1u)

Additional play(s) with no write up:

  • Commanders/Texans o40.5 -110, only game with >20% sharps toward over - have to take it after doing so well recently on these...will keep an eye on the percentages before kickoff.

  • Saints/Rams u39.5 -118, sharps on the under in an ugly game with no Kupp.

  • Something to come for Sunday Night

Will tweet something out for the Sunday Night Game, I want to see where the percentages fall first. Great slate today, let's get into it!

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