New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 ET)
Favorite: Rays -130
Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt (2.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Corey Kluber (4.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Don't look now, but the Rays are only 5 games back of the Yankees. It wasn't long ago the Yankees built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead on the division, but a now healthy offense in the Rays is complimenting their deep pitching staff beautifully. 5th in OPS over the last two weeks and 4th in reliever xFIP, the Rays aren't having to rely on brilliant starting pitching from McClanahan and others, and quiet frankly they can't given the injuries they've sustained to Shane Baz and Tyler Glasnow this season. As they do though, they've gone to their farm and string together bullpen games to get victories. Corey Kluber isn't one of those though and while his ERA looks solid, he's been anything but recently. Allowing at least one deep ball in each of his last 6 appearances and 3+ runs in 6 of his last 8 starts, Kluber needs to regain the form he found in May quickly.
Former South Carolina Gamecock Clarke Schmidt goes for the Yankees today, and with all of the pitching injuries they've sustained lately (Cortes, Gil, Green, King, Chapman, Severino, Taillon) he's been asked to take up a larger role. He's been brilliant the first time through the order, but typically can't last much farther. Expect that hot Tampa offense to get to him if they do try to string him out. If the Yankees do pull him after a few innings, the rest of their bullpen is depleted and has been performing accordingly. We could see another Rays offensive explosion like we saw Friday in the 9-0 victory. I don't trust Kluber enough or the Yankees pitching staff, so I think we'll get runs and cash this very low total with ease.
Pick: o7.5 -109 (1.5u)
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (7:10 ET)
Favorite: Mets -430
Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (6.56 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
The Mets aren't as dominant offensively recently as they've been over the course of the season, but the only more lopsided pitching matchup we could receive in the league this year would be DeGrom vs Corbin. Patrick Corbin is the statistical worst starter this season. He's now 5-17 for the season allowing nearly 2 baserunners every inning that he pitches. For those who don't understand, for every 3 outs he gets, he allows two hits. He's allowed a whopping 24 home runs this season and while he's been better his last two games I have no faith in him against someone like Scherzer. To add fuel to the fire, he's allowed 11 runs on 19 hits over his last 8.2 innings against the Mets. Need I say more? Take the Mets on the runline, pay the juice, and cash the ticket.
Pick: Mets to obliterate Corbin -1.5 -165 (1u)