Rick's MLB Plays 8/9

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 ET)

Favorite: Phillies -250

Total: 7.5

Pitchers: Braxton Garrett (3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs. Zack Wheeler (2.69 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

The Marlins continue their roadtrip into Philadelphia on the back of three straight series losses to the Mets, Reds and most recently the Cubs. Their offense even with some players coming back is still horrific. They've scored 12 runs over their past 8 games (1.5 runs per game) and now are afforded the pleasure of facing Zack Wheeler who has allowed more than 2 runs only twice over his last 14 outings, and considering he goes at least 6 innings in most outings the feat is even more impressive. To pile on, he's even more exceptional at home with a 1.58 ERA and .183 opponent batting average.

He's up against Braxton Garrett who has actually been solid over his last number of outings. He's not allowing much contact but is getting punished when he does. He's due for a good game but against a Phillies team that is 6th in OPS against lefties this year and 2nd in OPS over the last two weeks he could struggle to do well enough for the Marlins to have a chance. I don't see the Marlins scoring more than 2 runs this game and possibly less, so I'll take the Phillies on the run line to provide me some leeway.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 -106 (1.5u)

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (7:10 ET)

Favorite: Blue Jays -169

Total: 8.5

Pitchers: Alek Manoah (2.46 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs. Kyle Bradish (6.55 ERA, 1.65 WHIP)

Yesterday we cashed on the Orioles F5 +0.5, and today we'll cash on the Blue Jays. Alek Manoah has been one of my favorite pitchers to back this year for many reasons, but I find him to be one of the more entertaining pitchers to watch. He has a vintage, throwback style where he utilizes his 4-seam about 60% of the time and begs you to hit it well. Complimented by a filthy slider (.187 BA) and nasty changeup (.111 BA), he's one of the best pitchers the league has to offer. His opposition on Tuesday is Kyle Bradish, who probably isn't as bad as his ERA and WHIP indicate, but he still is no match. Prior to his last two starts he had a 7.38 ERA, but 3 ER over his last 10 innings has decreased that number substantially. Still, in his only outing against the Blue Jays he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits over 4.1 IP, and I expect similar numbers as the Jays are looking to bounce back after being relatively dominated on Monday. It's hard to keep an offense this talented and deep quiet for long, and I'll pay the juice to ensure nothing flukey happens.

Pick: Blue Jays ML -169 (1u)

Jayne Kamin-Oncea - USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets (7:10 ET)

Favorite: Mets -320

Total: 8.5

Pitchers: Mike Minor (6.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco (3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)

Back to the well again, we cashed Mets -1.5 on Monday for 2u. Mike Minor is as bad as they come and even though he's improved from a 7.70 ERA in his first month, he's still atrocious. Minor has allowed 13 walks over his last 4 starts and 15 runs in the process. On the road against this Marlins team I expect much of the same and with Carrasco on the mound opposite of him there's a massive advantage for the Mets. It's a small sample size, but since the beginning of August when they traded away multiple key assets they land 27th in OPS and only seem to be getting worse. Don't overthink this play, and get it in early before it gets to nearly -200 like Monday.

Pick: Mets -1.5 -140 (1u)

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