• Rick

Rick's MLB Plays 8/29

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 ET)

Favorite: Phillies -180

Total: 8.5

Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs. Madison Bumgarner (4.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

Madison Bumgarner is struggling as much as he ever has in his illustrious career. He's allowed 4 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts and has a 7.94 ERA in August. Unfortunately the advanced numbers aren't kind to him either. He's in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in nearly every category, so I expect that 4.53 ERA to continue to rise, especially with a healthy Philadelphia team coming into town. The Phillies rank 4th in OPS this season against lefties and are 5th this month, so they aren't slowing down at all. Batting .304 against lefties in August and with Bryce Harper back in the lineup they will surely get to him for a handful of runs. Ranger Suarez is throwing his best ball of the year, allowing just 7 runs over his last 41 innings. Given how bad the Diamondbacks are against lefties (29th in August, 23rd this season), I'd expect him to have yet another great outing. Give me the Phillies in the first five.

Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 -125 (1.5u)

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (9:45 ET)

Favorite: Giants -125

Total: 7

Pitchers: Mike Clevinger (3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs. Carlos Rodon (2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)

There's no question that Carlos Rodon is the better pitching matchup and that he's in better form, but he's also been doing it against the worst offenses in baseball (Tigers, Athletics, Pirates, Diamondbacks). The Padres haven't been as dominant as we all thought with Soto and Bell in the lineup, but they are quietly still very good. 6th in August in OPS (while SF is 21st), the Padres offense is beginning to find it's stride. They'll need better performances from starters like Clevinger, who has been up and down in August with a 4.00 ERA. There's no better team in the division to get that done than the Giants, who have lost 4 straight and 2-8 overall. Expect that trend to continue as the Padres pull the win as a short dog.

Padres ML +105 (1u)

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