Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 ET)
Favorite: Blue Jays -175
Pitchers: Reid Detmers (3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Mitch White (3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)
With two losses to the woeful Detroit Tigers followed be a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rays, the Angels have now lost six games straight with no real signs of improvement. They're only managed to score twelve runs over their last seven games (1.71 per game), and that includes two homers from Mike Trout in his last two games. While the season has been a wash for the Angels, one of their bright spots has been the emergence of Reid Detmers. The former #10 overall selection has improved throughout the year and has only allowed ten runs over his last 40.1 innings, good for a 2.23 ERA. He mixes in his slider (.184 BA) and curveball (.204 BA) masterfully with his fastball, and tosses in a changeup from time to time for good measure.
His counterpart on Friday will be someone we backed (and cashed) recently against the Yankees in Mitch White. Released from the Dodgers because their pitching staff was getting healthy, White is now looking to solidify himself in the rotation for the Blue Jays and has gotten off to a solid start in doing so. In his 13.1 innings since moving to Toronto he's posted just a 3.38 ERA and while he allows a good bit of contact, he mitigates damages well. The Toronto offense has been struggling as of late, but going back home against a team who simply can't string runs together is a good get right spot. Add in the fact that Los Angeles is flying from Tampa to Toronto with nothing to play for and I could see them coming out flat yet again. Give me the Blue Jays by multiple runs at plus money.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 +115 (1u)
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (7:10 ET)
Favorite: Mets -330
Pitchers: Chad Kuhl (5.16 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) vs. Chris Bassitt (3.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
These two pitchers could not be farther apart in regards to current form. Chris Bassitt is having the best performances of his career allowing just 2 runs over 26 innings in August (0.69 ERA). Chad Kuhl hasn't pitched since the beginning of August due to a right hip strain, but in his last 26.2 innings he's logged a 10.17 ERA. He's being beaten and bruised consistently and the Mets offense is desperate to break out of a recent slump. They're only 19th in OPS over the last two weeks, and while their record has been solid they're due to have an offensive explosion after just 7 runs in their last 3 games. The Rockies offense hasn't been great recently either, but we all know just how good they can be with their 9th ranked OPS. I don't expect the Mets to need much run support to hit the over here, but I think the Rockies add a couple runs themselves to help out. Bassitt is due to regress a bit and I'll bet on there being some Friday night dingers. Give me the over!
Pick: o8 -102 (1u)
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (10:10 ET)
Favorite: Pick 'em
Pitchers: Shane Bieber (3.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Logan Gilbert (3.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Logan Gilbert has finally began to prove the advanced statistics correct. All year he has placed himself among the bottom third of pitchers in multiple categories but personified a bend-but-don't-break persona to perfection. That was until August. He's now allowed 2+ runs in 10 of his last 12 starts and has a massive 7.97 ERA in August. He ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage and average exit velocity and I expect that to show tonight against a Cleveland team on Friday. The Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 18.3% and given Gilbert has a low rate already, they should be able to make consistent hard contact all game. The books have set this total far too low because of the season long statistics of these two, but give me the Guardians to score at least 3 runs on Friday and more than likely notch a win in the process.
Pick: Guardians TT o3 -135 (1u) & Guardians ML -108 (.5u)