Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (7:10 ET)
Favorite: Red Sox -135
Pitchers: Dean Kremer (3.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs. Josh Winckowski (4.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)
The Redsox have now lost 6 of their last 7 games and have allowed 52 runs in the process (7.43 rpg). The starting pitchers are half regulars in a slump and half rookies essentially on trial for the rest of the season. One of those rookies is Josh Winckowski who was off to a good start but as teams get more tape on him he's regressed. He's almost certain to allow multiple runs over 5 innings then get pulled, but I'm not sure that's for the better. Boston's bullpen ranks 25th in ERA this year (4.41) and are the worst in the majors since the beginning of July (5.67 ERA).
Where Boston's bullpen struggles, the Orioles is one of the best in the majors. Leading the league since July 1st in xFIP and 5th in ERA, they keep the Orioles in games when their starters don't have it. Kremer has struggled a bit as of late but got back on track against the Pirates allowing just 4 hits and no runs over 6.1 innings. The Red Sox are likely to notch a few runs on him but I think Winckowski will allow just as many and I trust the bullpen of the Orioles far more.
The Red Sox have been swinging the bats fairly well with 27 runs over their last 5 games (5.4 rpg) but I can't trust Winckowski or the bullpen to keep this resurgent and dynamic Orioles team quiet for the entire game. I think the wrong team is favored here as all intangibles go in the direction of the Orioles, in addition to stark advantages across the board defensively. Give me the Orioles and TT o4.5
Pick: Orioles ML +115 (1u) & Orioles TT o4.5 -110 (1u)
Only 1 game and 2 official plays today, was not a fan of the board at all. UFC will be out Thursday evening in addition to more plays for Friday! Be on the lookout and thank you for your support!