Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 ET)
Favorite: Brewers -115
Pitchers: Dylan Bundy (4.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs. Ethan Small (6.75 ERA, 3.00 WHIP)
Ethan Small’s WHIP will not always be that bad, he’s only pitched 2.2 innings in the majors. With that said, I don’t expect it to improve tonight. In his return to AAA after that lone start he’s struggled posting nearly a 5 ERA including 19 walks over 34.1 innings. Given his lack of control across both the big leagues and Minnesota being in the top 10 in all offensive categories boasting a deep lineup, I doubt he allows less than 3 runs over the first five innings. Dylan Bundy has turned into a respectable starter this year for the Twins, a far cry from his 6.05 ERA last year. He’s at a 3.15 ERA over his last 8 starts and is the much better starter on Tuesday, something that will probably only happen once this series given the Brewers pitching staff. Take the Twins as the slight dog and run with it.
Pick: Twins ML -105 (2u)
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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 ET)
Favorite: Dodgers -260
Pitchers: Josiah Gray (4.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs. Mitch White (3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
I empathize with Juan Soto. He’s stuck carrying a brutally bad lineup with one of the worst pitching staffs in the country to boot. He’s managed to make their offense respectable, but even then they’re one of the worst in the league. In July they’re 28th in OPS and for the season are only 24th. People they thought would produce like Cesar Hernandez and Nelson Cruz are underperforming massively and they’re in full rebuild mode. The Dodgers in comparison are still getting it done with a plethora of pitching injuries, held up by a deep pitching staff and the best offense this season and in July. The Dodgers walk at a phenomenal 10.1%, an area where Josiah Gray can often struggle in. Gray’s last two months could not be any different, posting a 1.13 ERA in June but a horrid 7.02 in July, bolstered by 6 homers allowed over his 3 games and a 1.56 WHIP. He’s getting blasted and given the Dodgers might lose game one (down 4-1 currently) they’ll be looking to get one back on Tuesday. A 34-14 home record should improve, and I expect fireworks. Take the Dodgers to do so in impressive fashion.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 -125 (1u)
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