Updated: Jul 17
Additional plays to be tweeted out, most lines aren’t up at the time of posting this.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Favorite: Rays -155
Pitchers: Jordan Lyles (4.37 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs. Corey Kluber (3.58 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
I’d be lying if I said the Orioles are the hottest team in baseball. That award goes the Mariners on their 13 game winning streak. A close second is the Orioles who are suddenly above .500 and playing some of the best ball in the majors behind overachieving starters, a rock-solid bullpen, and emerging offensive stars like Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman to compliment established batters like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Trey Mancini. Jordan Lyles hasn’t had a great year but has been solid enough to keep Baltimore in a lot of games. His June was one to forget as he logged a 6.28 ERA, but his 3 starts in July have been brilliant. He’s got a 1.86 ERA across his 3 starts and has pitched at least 6 innings in each outing.
The Rays have been one of the hottest offensive teams in baseball and sweeping the Boston Red Sox at home was a large part of that. They’re 6th in OPS in July and 1st in Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP), meaning they’re getting on base and contact they’re making is resulting in hits. Their pitching per usual has been exemplary resulting in a good run of form, and Corey Kluber is a big part of that. In his last two games against a healthy Red Sox offense he allowed only 2 runs over 12 innings. He’s only allowed more than 3 runs once in his last 11 games, but is good to give up a few every outing. Given how hot the Orioles are I expect them to at least get a couple off of him and add one or two more from the bullpen. The Orioles team total is my play here as the line is only set to 3, a number they’ve hit in 9 of their last 11 games and in each of their 2 already against the Rays.
Pick: Orioles F5 +0.5 -120 (0.5u) & Orioles TT o3 -125 (1u)
Julio Cortez - AP
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (1:40 ET)
Favorite: Phillies -155
Pitchers: Aaron Nola (3.35 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) vs. Trevor Rogers (5.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP)
It’s criminal that Aaron Nola’s record is 5-7 this year, which also should go to show that starters’ records really don’t mean shit. He’s been great for them all year but for whatever reason can never seem to get the run support needed. With that said, he’s been getting banged up lately to the tune of 12 runs over his last 3 games. Given he’s gone at least 7 innings in each outing it’s not that bad but still the worst stretch of his season. He’ll be happy to be on the road (2.61 away ERA) and facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league right now in Miami. They’re missing Jazz Chisholm and others bad right now, posting the 29th ranked OPS in July, batting only .212. There’s no better opportunity for Nola to bounce back than here, especially with Trevor Rogers opposite of him. Rogers Has been better as of late, but better is still a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts and 8 walks. He’s got a .271 xBA, one of the highest walk rates in the league, and for whatever reason is not the pitcher he showed the majors he was last year. Expect the Phillies to get the sweep going into the All-Star break.
Pick: Phillies ML -155 (1u)
Jason Getz - USA Today