Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Favorite: Astros -140
Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (2.22 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs. Jose Urquidy (4.77 ERA, 1.51 WHIP)
The Mariners and Astros face off in a series deciding game three after splitting the first two games. Both starters this evening has over performed in comparison to their expected numbers, but even then these pitchers are on two different levels. Logan Gilbert’s xERA is 3.61 and he’s got the tendency to be hit hard when contact is made, but there is a lot to like about him. He doesn’t let many on base, and though he gets hit hard, his xSLG is solid. He’s got a great strikeout and walk rate as well to boot. In his last outing against the Astros recently, he posted 7 scoreless innings, allowing only 4 hits in the process. He’s excelled on the road this season as well, posting a 1.96 ERA in 7 starts.
Jose Urquidy has been quite the opposite. His xERA is sitting at 6.11, and boy does he get hit hard and often. Posting a .597 xSLG and getting barreled 11.7% of the time, he had a polar opposite outing to Gilbert in his last game against the Mariners. He went 4.2 innings, allowing 12 hits and 5 ER. Both sets of bats have been good lately, top 10 in OBP over the past 2 weeks and around there in weighted runs created plus. Expect Gilbert to outperform Urquidy here, and take the juice with the Mariners, as the books are buying the Astros bats who haven’t been as good as advertised.
Pick: Mariners F5 +0.5 (-130) 1.5u
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Favorite: Phillies -115
Pitchers: Aaron Nola (3.92 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (3.51 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
There’s nothing like a good manager change to rejuvenate a clubhouse, and the Phillies are getting just that. Winners of their last 5 games now, they’ve scored at least 6 runs in 4 of those. They’re looking like the team they were touted to be coming into the season, while the Brewers are slumping hard lately. Losers in 6 of their last 7, the Brewers have only managed 12 runs in their last 5. Two teams in very different form should provide an interesting contest this evening.
Starting with the Phillies, Aaron Nola’s ERA doesn’t do his season justice. He’s got an exceptional xwOBA and xBA, recording .280 and .213 respectively. He’s only walking 3.8% of batters, and all of these numbers lead to an xERA of 2.81. Interestingly enough, he’s great through the first part of the order, but horrible after. In the first three innings he has a 1.36 ERA, but from the 4th and on he has a 6.51 for the season. Once players see him once, they tend to catch on and launch on him.
Adrian Houser is the definition of a homebody. He’s glad to be pitching in Milwaukee this time out, where he has a 1.95 ERA this year. When traveling, he logs a 5.32 ERA. He’s been hot lately after a testy start to the season, allowing just 6 runs in his last 4 starts. Working behind his fastball, he’s been able to keep batters off-balance rotating between a curve, change and slider. Expect the Brewers to bounce back tonight in what should be a great contest.
Pick: NRFI -115 (1u) & Brewers F5 +0.5 -125 (1u)
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Favorite: Yankees -175
Pitchers: Nestor Cortes (1.50 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs. Chris Archer (3.89 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
Nestor Cortes is on the fast track to winning the AL Cy Young if he can keep up what he’s doing. There’s no point in throwing numbers to show just how good he’s been, but I do want to throw one. His xBA allowed is .200. Every batter on average is hitting right at the Mendoza line, which is unbelievable. Chris Archer has not been as good as you’d think. He’s got an xERA of 5.52, and his other advanced stats reflect that further. He’s not been good at home, posting a 5.00 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP, and he won’t get any help from a bullpen allowing a 5.17 ERA over the past two weeks either.
The Yankees bats just got Giancarlo Stanton back, and he returned right where he left off going deep yet again. I think I saw his and Judge’s first two homers combined for almost 900 feet? Their power is just unfair. The Yankees are in the top 5 of every offensive category recently, and the Twins are around the middle of the pack. As chalky as it is, expect the Yankees to continue their dominance behind Nestor Cortes tonight.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 -110 (1u)