Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
Favorite: Reds -120
Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (3.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Hunter Greene (6.19 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)
In one of the more gross games I’m going to cap this year, the struggling Diamondbacks visit the Reds off the back of two defeats to the Pirates. Madison Bumgarner takes the mound not the pitcher he used to be. While his ERA is good, his xERA is 4.44, and he’s allowed 14 runs in his last 24 innings. He gets hit hard on 46.2% of batted balls and gives up an xSLG of .497. The Cincinnati bats have been firing on all cylinders, hitting 7th in OPS against lefties since the middle of May. Expect them to do the same today against Bumgarner and if they don't, the pen of Arizona is no better. They’re allowed a 5.05 ERA since the beginning of May, which is good for 24th.
Pick: Reds TT o4.5 -125 (1u)
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Favorite: Astros -170
Pitchers: Robbie Ray (4.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Cristian Javier (2.42 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
Javier has been one of the leagues best this season, and that ERA is no fluke. Robbie Ray has not lived up to expectations though, so while his strikeout numbers are phenomenal, he’s allowing runs consistently. In fact, he’s allowed at least 3 runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. Good for him, the Astros are 21st in OPS against lefties in the past two weeks, so he might find tonight to be an opportunity to revitalize his season.
Seattle’s offense has been a problem lately. With Julio Rodriguez on the basepaths and Ty France, JP Crawford, and Eugenio Suarez seeing the ball well, they’ve been able to do some damage to teams lately. They might not do enough tonight against a savvy pitcher like Javier, but they should keep his game close.
Picks: Mariners +1.5 -140 (1u) & u8.5 -125 (1u)
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres
Favorite: Padres -115
Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco (3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Blake Snell (4.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
Blake Snell has not been as bad as his numbers indicate. He’s not allowing many hits, but the ones he’s giving up are turning into runs. He’s going to improve, but will his offense? The Padres are batting a horrific 28th in OPS over the last two weeks, woeful in comparison to the Mets’ 3rd ranking. Carrasco has struggled a bit lately, sure, but he’s shown a tendency to bounce back from bad performances and move forward. Expect him and the Mets’ excellent bullpen to keep the Padres offense sputtering tonight as the Mets continue their fight for the best in baseball.
Pick: Mets ML -105 (1.5u)
Alejandra Villa Loraca