Updated: Sep 12
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox (2:10 ET)
Pitchers: Spenser Watkins (6.00 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) vs. Lance Lynn (5.79 ERA, 1.71 WHIP)
Lines are still not out as I’m writing this at 11:45 ET, but I’ve got an idea of where they will land. Spenser Watkins is one of the worst pitchers in the majors and is back from injury in his first game in over a month. In his 30 innings so far, he’s posting numbers good for the bottom 1% of pitchers across the board. An xERA of 7.53 is atrocious and it won’t get any better against a White Sox team desperate to get one back on the Orioles after 2 losses at home. Lance Lynn hasn’t been great in his first two outings, but looked better in his most recent appearance even though he allowed 3 runs. He’s still finding his rhythm, necessary for a pitcher who is reliant on a couple variations of his fastball. Expect runs to be scored on both sides given how these offenses have been in June and the White Sox to pull it out.
Pick: White Sox F5 ML (if less than -160) & the over (if 9.5 or less)
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins (4:10 ET)
Favorite: Mets -155
Pitchers: Chris Bassitt (4.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Trevor Rogers (5.83 ERA, 1.62 WHIP)
Something is seriously wrong with Trevor Rogers and I’m unsure if it’s mental or an underlying physical condition. For a man who was so dominant last year he has been atrocious this year. The movement on his fastball, change, and slider are all down a substantial amount and it’s showing in his game. His xERA is only a 5.07, but he’s posted an 7.27 ERA in June and 8.85 at home. He’s struggling but luckily so is Chris Bassitt across the mound. Bassitt started the year fantastic with a 2.25 ERA in April, but since has posted a 4.73. He allowed 3 runs in his last outing against the Marlins and has struggled giving up extra baserunners.
Both of these offenses are in the top half of the league for the year, so their recent struggles can be somewhat attributed to a mid-year slump. What is intriguing is that 8 or more runs have been scored in 7 of New York’s last 9 games, half of which were against the Marlins. Both bullpens can struggle, especially Miami’s, so if either pitcher gets banged up their team likely won’t save them. I’m going to play the over and the Mets given how bad Rogers and his bullpen have been.
Pick: Mets ML -155 (1u) & o8 -110 (1u)
Harry How - Getty Images
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (10:07 ET)
Favorite: Angels -125
Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (2.28 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs. Patrick Sandoval (2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
The majority of my cap on this game is due to my thoughts that these stats will regress positively and negatively as it pertains to these teams and their pitchers. Both Logan Gilbert (3.94 xERA) and Patrick Sandoval (3.80 xERA) are grossly over-performing their expected numbers, and mostly Gilbert. He ranks in the bottom 5% of the league in hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He’s due for negative regression and it‘s bound to come against a team that is trying to break through. Both offenses have been terrible in June - 24th and 27th in OPS - but have the weapons in their arsenal to pop at any time. I think these batters having seen the starters recently (7 days ago) offers them insight to connect better and it will lead to a higher scoring contest despite their offensive struggles.
Pick: o8 -105 (1u)
Peter Joneleit - AP Images