Lineups Posted around 3 hours before first pitch
What a day yesterday for the account! 7-1 on MLB plays up 6.85u and Andy’s NBA Draft plays torched the bookie as well. After great days I like to remind myself that they are the outlier, much like horrible days. Staying the course and sticking to the process is vital and that’s what I’ll bring today with some Friday evening baseball plays below. Let’s get into it!
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins (6:40 ET)
Favorite: Marlins -135
Pitchers: Taijuan Walker (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (1.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
There’s no need to go over Sandy and just how good the Cy Young favorite has been. He hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 7 games and goes deep into games consistently to afford his average bullpen less times to blow leads. Taijuan Walker has posted a great ERA so far this year, though he’s due to regress at some point. He’s hit hard 44.7% of the time, well above league average, and he doesn’t strike people out often. All of that said, his last time out was against the Marlins and he was nothing short of brilliant. 2 hits and 1 run In 6.2 IP against Miami and is looking to travel and do the same today.
June has been a tale of two different stories for these teams. On one hand, the Marlins are nothing if not consistent. They’re 14th in OPS for the year and 14th through June. They run the bases well and capitalize on the hits they get frequently. The Mets have vastly underperformed in June, posting an OPS good for 20th, while they still sit 7th for the season. Expect positive regression but not against an Ace like Sandy.
Pick: Marlins ML -135 (1u)
Steve Nesius / AP Photo
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (7:05 ET)
Favorite: Yankees -132
Pitchers: Justin Verlander (2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) vs. Luis Severino (3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
I hope some of you caught the first game of this series last night during the draft. A 3-3 first inning followed by a 4 run 9th by Aaron Judge and the Yankees was peak drama! The Yankees don’t know how to lose and behind a pitcher like Severino who is as good as he is at home (2.33 ERA), it’ll be tough for them to do so today. We both know how good these offenses have been all year, so I won’t go into much detail about that. Luis Severino is coming off of his worst outing of the year against the Blue Jays, surrendering 5 runs in 5 innings. The silver lining is that he only allowed 3 hits, but he’s still looking to bounce back. He’s in the top 10 percentile in all important advanced metrics, posting a 2.65 xERA.
Justin Verlander on the other hand has been struggling by his standards recently. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, and but has gone deep into games and isn’t allowing many hits. He is prone to giving up the long ball, so against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium he could give up 1 or 2 tonight. What I find interesting is his history against the Yankees. In his last 5 starts against them, he’s allowed at least 3 runs in each, has walked 17 batters, and allowed 6 home runs. He’s getting pummeled by the Yankees and given how excellent Severino has been at home I expect the Yankees to be leading after 5.
Pick: Yankees F5 ML -120 (1u)
Jon Minchillo - AP Photo
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (7:10 ET)
Favorite: Red Sox -120
Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs. Cal Qunatrill (3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
This line should not be this close to a pick ‘em and I’m a bit baffled by it. Yes, the Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 and 16-10 at home on the season. Cal Quantrill is also slightly better in Cleveland than he is away, posting a 3.16 ERA at home. Their bats are solely dependent on Jose Ramirez and aside from him are bullocks. Their OPS for the season, even with the league leader in RBIs, is 18th and in June it’s worse. The positives is that they don’t strike out at all (lead the league) and their relief pitching is excellent.
I don’t want to take this game to the bullpen. Nick Pivetta has been out of his mind lately. He’s only given up more than 1 run twice in his last 9 starts. Over those 61 innings he’s posted a 1.77 ERA with well below a 1 WHIP. His Knucklecurve and Slider are dominating batters and while he was hit hard at the beginning of the season, it’s just not happening like it was. Pair that with the juggernaut offense that the Red Sox are fielding and this line should be more towards a -160 price. Give me the Red Sox F5.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML -120 (1.5u)
Maddie Meyer - Getty Images
More plays to come on twitter @RickHHSports . Don’t miss them, be sure to follow and turn on notifications!