Philadelphia Phillies @ Texas Rangers (8:10 ET)
Favorite: Rangers -135
Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (4.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs. Martin Perez (2.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
The regression is here for Martin Perez. The starter released from the Red Sox and picked up off of waivers from the Rangers has been immense for their rotation this year, solidifying himself as one of the best so far in 2022, but reality has cought up to him. In his last 18 innings he’s allowing a 1.72 WHIP, and while the runs allowed aren’t crazy, they’re coming. Who better than the red hot Phillies behind offensive juggernauts like Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and Kyle Schwarber to get ERA back to reality either. This starter, Kyle Gibson, has been excellent as well in his last couple of starts, allowing just 4 runs in 14 innings. Expect that to continue against a poor Rangers offense. The bookmakers are still believing in Martin Perez, but I’m here to get ahead of the curve and take the Phillies as a very slight underdog to get ahead of the downfall.
Pick: Phillies ML +115 (1.5u)
Jose F. Moreno / Philadelphia Inquirer
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (7:40 ET)
Favorite: Twins -160
Pitchers: Aaron Civale (7.84 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) vs. Joe Ryan (2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)
Two pitchers coming off of their best and worst outings respectively face off in the Twin Cities. Civale is coming off 6 scoreless innings, albeit against the hapless Tigers. Before that outing he had posted 22 runs allowed in his last 17.1 innings, north of a 10 ERA. Don’t expect him to keep up his momentum tonight against an offense that ranks near the top in every category behind Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Joe Ryan is coming off of his worst outing, allowing 4 runs in 4.2 IP in Seattle. He’s pitched at home against the Guardians already this year, logging 6 innings and only 4 hits and 1 run to show for it. Expect much of the same, and lets cut some off that juice off by making this play in the first five innings.
Pick: Twins F5 -0.5 -120 (1u)
Bryce Hemmelgarn / Getty Images
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 ET)
Favorite: Cardinals -125
Pitchers: Flaherty (6 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP)
Do not read into those pitching stats at all above, they’be combined for 10 innings pitched so far this year. What we do know abut them is that Flaherty was solid last year (3.22 ERA, though a 4.89 xERA) and Chi Chi Gonzalez is more worthless than a holy trashbag (over a 6.00 ERA in 3 of his last 4 seasons). We addressed the offenses last night, with the Cardinals being among some of the best and the Brewers being their achilles heel per usual. Last night Corbin Burnes took over in a 2-0 victory. Mikolas was great but just couldn’t muster up any run support. Expect a different story today as the Cardinals bats will look to bounce back against a pitcher who should act like a Duracell and go to AAA soon.
Pick: Cardinals ML -125 (1u)
Jeff Roberson / AP
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (9:40 ET)
Favorite: Mariners -140
Pitchers: Marco Gonzales (3.41 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs. James Kaprielian (6.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
The A’s have officially done it. They’ve overtaken the Tigers as the worst team in the Major Leagues in OPS. At .604, they can officially hang their hat on being the worst. It doesn’t help that Kaprielian is on the mound for them tonight. He’s allowed 4 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, and gives up a homer every 4 innings on average. He‘s in the bottom 10% in xERA, xwOBA, xSLG, and K% and it’s not going to get better any time soon.
What better way for the Mariners to get out of their June offensive slump than this? Marco Gonzales hasn’t been phenomenal (xERA of 4.90) but he has outperformed his xERA in each of the last 5 seasons now. He gets out of jams and doesn’t get cute. In fact, over his last 4 starts he‘s logging an ERA below 3. Expect the front of the Mariners order to wake up today and get him some run support and lead the Mariners to an easy victory out in the Bay.
Pick: Mariners ML -140 (1u)
Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times