Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (7:10 EST)
Favorite: Mets -150
Pitchers: Adrian Houser (3.92 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs. Chris Bassitt (4.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
Milwaukee is slipping back into their black hole offense that has plagued them for years. They’ve had great pitching for the past number of years, but can never seem to find consistent offense to get them over the hump and to the World Series. In the month of June only Detroit is worse than Milwaukee in terms of OPS, and they rate 28th in wOBA and wRC+. They’ve been dreadful and there’s no other way to say it. They stay afloat by some of the best starters in the sport, but are not given that benefit tonight. Adrian Houser has been poor lately and struggles on the road. Allowing 5+ runs in 2 of his last 3 starts and posting a 5.32 ERA away from home this year, he could be in for a rude awakening against a Mets team finally from home a long, tough road trip.
New York is coming off a west-coast trip facing the Dodgers, Padres and Angels in succession. They’re finally home after a day off and throw Chris Bassitt tonight. His numbers would indicate he hasn’t been great, but that’s a little harsh. He’s posting a .230 xBA and 3.53 xERA. He’s much better at home and has the bats behind him to give him some runs if needed. Expect the Mets to take care of business in the Big Apple and regain their footing.
Pick: Mets ML -150 (1u)
Oakland A’s @ Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST)
Favorite: Red Sox -220
Pitchers: Jared Koenig (9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) vs. Nick Pivetta (3.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Another team finally home after an extended road trip, the Red Sox return as winners of all three series and are now 8-2 in their last 10 games. The trip was not for the feint of heart, as they had multiple 1-run games both high-scoring and low-scoring. With a day of rest, they play the A’s at home now after outscoring them 20-4 on the road. Nick Pivetta takes the mound as one of the hottest pitchers in the rotation, allowing more than 1 run just twice in his last 7 starts. He takes on the same A’s team he allowed 2 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings against just 10 days ago, and looks to keep that going.
Don’t be too startled by Jared Koenig’s ERA, he’s only pitched 4 innings. While it surely will come down, he‘s not getting a great opportunity today in traveling across country to meet Devers, Bogaerts and Martinez. Expect them to get to Koenig early and often and the Red Sox to cruise to an easier victory today.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 -115 (1u)
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers (8:05 EST)
Favorite: Astros -125
Pitchers: Jose Urquidy (5.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) vs. Dane Dunning (4.41 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Jose Urquidy is not like the others in his rotation. Surrounded by studs like Verlander and Javier, he’s abysmal this year and isn’t getting any better. In his last 26.2 IP, he’s given up 50 baserunners - good for nearly a 2 WHIP - and has an xERA of 6.34 for the year. He’s at the bottom of nearly every metric and there are no signs of improvement to come. On top of all of that, he’s much worse on the road, posting a 6.61 ERA away from Houston compared to a 2.78 on his home mound. His counterpart, Dave Dunning, personifies average this year. He’s got a 4.17 xERA and has allowed at least 2 runs in each of his last 6 starts. He ‘s been better at home but even then is guaranteed to at least give up a few.
Both those teams have been hot in June, with Houston’s bats particularly coming into form. They’re top 5 in every offensive category so far this month and are looking to get back on track after the Rangers came back last night to steal game one of the series. I’m not sure they do, but I do think both starters give up a handful of runs.
Pick: o8.5 -115 (1u)
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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST)
Favorite: Mariners -125
Pitchers: Joe Ryan (2.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs. Logan Gilbert (2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
A late night pitching duel is what we seem to have on our hands. Logan Gilbert is posting his best season yet, but is starting to finally come back down to earth. He’s allowed 3+ runs in 5 of his last 7 starts, and all of those hard hit balls he allows are starting to cost him. He’s still been solid, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not a Cy Young contender by any means of the term. His xERA is 3.92, and I expect him to continue to trend towards that as we get deeper into summer.
Across the mound is prospect Joe Ryan who has torn up the AL this year. His xERA is similar to Gilbert at a 3.34, but his story is slightly different. He’s only allowed more than 2 runs once this year, and is posting a 1.61 ERA away from home. His fastball - slider combination has been filthy, logging a .142 & .200 batting average respectively. He’s got the undisputed better bats behind him with Buxton, Arraez and Correa and expect this shocking dog to pull it out on the road.
Pick: Twins ML +105 (1.5u)