Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Favorite: Red Sox -130
Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (2.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (4.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Nathan Eovaldi’s last time out he allowed 5 homers against the Astros. He’s been undeniably poor at every level and desperately needs to get back on track to help a limited Red Sox rotation. Luckily for him, the offense has found it’s form lately, 4th in OPS in May scoring 8.33 runs per game so far in this series.
The Mariners’ bats have improved from where they were at the bottom of the league, putting in a handful of runs in each game so far this series. Against an out of form Eovaldi they might be able to continue that trend forward, especially with Logan Gilbert who has been fantastic this season. While having quality metrics in expected stats, he’s still getting hit hard when batters make contact and the rate at which they do is fairly high. Given how the Red Sox bats have been throughout the lineup lately, they should be able to get to today.
Pick: Red Sox ML -130 (1u)
Chris O’Meara / AP Photos
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Favorite: Marlins -120
Pitchers: Ian Anderson (3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Ian Anderson has picked up where he left off in 2021, posting nearly the same ERA he had last year. The only difference is his early numbers indicate he’s not performing quite as well. Lacking strikeouts and walking too many batters in addition to hard contact consistently, he’s apt to regress a bit soon. The Marlins’ bats have been in the top-half of the league in all categories over the past month, so while their record doesn’t indicate it, they’ve been hitting well.
Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins as one of the best in the league over the past couple of years, and he’s not slowing down. He’s been exceptional this year and today should be no different. He has a career 2.20 ERA against the Braves, who have been relatively poor in recent weeks. Posting numbers in the bottom half of the league, he should be able to post 6 or 7 innings allowing 1-2 runs today.
Pick: Marlins F5 ML -125 (1u) & ML -120 (1u)
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
Favorite: Mets -120
Pitchers: Taijuan Walker (3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Austin Gomber (4.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Two teams who have been swinging the bat exceptionally well recently, we get a game in thin-air Colorado where the ball loves to fly. With two pitchers who aren’t as good as their early stats show, we should see the ball fly around the park today. Overs are 9-2 in the Rockies’ last 11 games in astounding fashion. They’re averaging 13.88 runs per game in the last 8. With a total of 11 and two pitchers prone to the long ball, I expect a game with runs galore.
Pick: o10.5 -125 (1u)
Matt Dirksen / Colorado Rockies