New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Favorite: Yankees -240
Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Spenser Watkins (5.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP)
Yesterday we were on the Yankees -1.5 to continue their hot streak to begin the season and they answered the bell with an easy 6-2 win over the Orioles. We won’t get back into how the Yankees bats are far superior to the Orioles’, but let’s break down our pitching matchup.
Jameson Taillon doesn’t give free baserunners, or many at all for that matter. Best at creating soft contact and not walking guys, he’s been a solid arm for the Yankees for a couple of years now. While not exceptional, he’s very solid. On the other end of the spectrum is Watkins, whose expected ERA is 6.72. In his last 3 games he’s allowed 20 hits and 11 runs in just 13 innings. In his two year stint in the majors he’s been nothing short of terrible. Expect nothing less today with the Yankees in town.
Pick: Yankees F5 -1 -105 (1.5u)
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Favorite: Red Sox -120
Pitchers: Jose Urquidy (4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)
The AL West leading Astros come to Boston, a rematch from last year’s ALCS. While an extended game 1 got away from the Astros, they’re back tonight to try and get back into the series. We’ve talked about their bats, which have been exceptional in the month of May logging a .798 OPS (3rd in MLB), but they are starting Jose Urquidy who has been well-short of fantastic. His ERA isn’t horrible, but he’s outperforming his expected numbers by a ton. An xERA of 6.36 and xSLG of .631 place him among the bottom-dwellers of the league.
His opponent on the mound tonight in Eovaldi hasn’t been exceptional this year, though his numbers would indicate it. His xERA is only a 4.39 and his advanced stats have not been great either. Giving up 3 runs in each of his last two starts, he needs to dial it in if the Red Sox are going to make any sort of push for the playoff spots. Thankfully, their bats have woken up recently. Averaging over 6 runs in their past 6 games, they’ve seemed to hit their stride. Bogaerts and Martinez are hitting everything and the end of the order (except JBJ) is doing their bit now too. Expect them to take the series tonight against a poor pitcher in Urquidy.
Pick: Red Sox -120 (1u) & Red Sox & o8.5 +250 (.4u)