• Rick

Rick’s MLB Plays 5/14/2022

San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals

Favorite: Giants -112

Total: 9

Pitchers: Jakob Junis (1.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs Dakota Hudson (3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

The Cardinals are coming in losers of 3 of their last 4 (including a series loss to the Orioles) with their bats beginning to struggle. Only scoring more than 3 runs once in their last 5, boasting an OBP good for 21st in the last two weeks, they are desperate to regain their form. On the mound is Dakota Hudson, whose ERA (3.56) looks great, but his expected numbers and WHIP have been quite poor. An xERA of 5.27 including 13 walks in his last 4 games does not bode well vs a Giants team that leads the league in OBP in May.

The Giants boast a solid winning streak of 6 coming into Saturday, and are a perfect 8-0 on the road as the favorite this year (8-0 on the run line too). Junis has a small sample size of 15 IP but has been exceptional. His xBA, strikeout and walk percentages, and whiff rate are all top notch and I expect him to continue that against a Cardinals team that has been stifled lately.

These two matched up 2 weeks ago where Junis got the better of Hudson and I expect the same today. I will be isolating the first 5 innings here as the Giants bullpen has been poor lately (last in BA).

Pick: Giants F5 ML -120 (1u)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins

Favorite: Brewers -120

Total: 7

Pitchers: Eric Lauer (1.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) vs. Trevor Rogers (5.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)

Back to Miami to cap another game. Last night we got just what we expected in a low-scoring tight affair, cashing in on the Marlins +1.5 in a 2-1 defeat. Today, the Marlins are throwing Rogers who has struggled to regain his form of last year (2.64 ERA) thus far. All of his expected numbers across the board are up and in particular his 4-seamer is being hit at an alarming .327 BA this year. The Brewers being 1st in OPS vs lefties recently does not bode well to buck these trends.

Lauer on the mound for Milwaukee has been striking out people for fun, registering 32 in his last 19.1 IP while only allowing 2 runs. His two best pitches (4-seam & slider) are generating only .128 BA for opponents. Expect that to continue against a slumping Marlins team desperate to find runs where they can.

Pick: Brewers ML -120 (1u)

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

Favorite: Rangers -120

Total: 8

Pitchers: Rich Hill (2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs. Glenn Otto (3.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP)

It’s no secret that Boston has been one of the biggest underperformers so far this year. At 12-20 their bats have underperformed with the exception of Xander Bogaerts leading the AL in BA with .347. Boston’s bats have improved recently, knocking in 19 runs in their last 3 games. Pitching hasn’t been much better with injuries to Chris Sale and Michael Wacha, they’ve needed someone to step up. Welcome the fine wine that is Rich Hill. At 42 years of age he’s been able to revamp his game multiple times, using different pitches throughout his illustrious career.

If you look at Glenn Otto’s numbers, you’d think he’s been unbelievable this season for Texas. His ERA and WHIP are both solid, but the in-depth statistics tell a very different story. With an xERA of 6.37 and landing in the bottom 15 percentile of xSLG, xBA, and more, he’s due to regress sooner rather than later. Add in he’s getting hit hard 47.4% of the time, expect the Red Sox bats to continue the form they’re in against Glenn and pull off a minor upset.

Pick: Red Sox F5 ML +105 (1u)

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