Rick’s July 5th MLB Plays

I hope you all enjoyed hot dogs, family and baseball yesterday, as the only disappointment should have been Joey Chestnut not hitting his over on hot dogs consumed in the competition. After a blazing hot week 2 weeks ago, we regressed a bit last week and are looking to turn the tides coming into this Tuesday. I’ve got 5 plays on the massive slate today so lets get into them!

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (4:10 ET)

Favorite: Padres -135

Total: 7.5

Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (2.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Mike Clevinger (2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)

The regression that the statistics have been telling us will happen for Logan Gilbert might finally be coming. I’ve expressed for weeks now how often and hard he gets hit and that he’s below average in nearly every category, but he continued to churn out solid performances. Well, recently has been a different story. In his last 3 games he’s allowed 9 runs in 17.2 innings, giving up 21 hits and 5 home runs in the process. He’s facing a Padres lineup that only scored 2 runs yesterday against Flexen (his best outing of the season), but has been hot over the last 3 weeks posting an OPS good for 10th. They should receive an additional boost with Machado being added to the lineup recently as well.

While the Padres are getting players back, the Mariners are still struggling with multiple injuries (most namely being Ty France and Mitch Hanniger), and are still suffering the repercussions from their recent brawl with Julio Rodriguez likely to go on suspension soon. J.P. Crawford just came back his suspension to help propel the Mariners to 8 runs yesterday, but I don’t think it’s likely they continue that against Mike Clevinger who has been brilliant since becoming a starter. He tends to go 5 innings or less and has a short leash, but he’s been phenomenal behind his 4SFB and Slider. His cutter and sinker have let him down a bit, but given how often he uses the other two pitches it shouldn’t be much of a problem. Expect him to get the Padres back on track against an offense that hasn’t been good despite their run production yesterday.

Pick: Padres F5 ML -130 (1u)

Ken Blaze - USA Today

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (6:40 ET)

Favorite: Marlins -140

Total: 7

Pitchers: Noah Syndergaard (3.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)

We talked yesterday about Alek Manoah and how he’s my favorite for the AL Cy Young (naturally he posted his season worst performance later against the mighty A’s). Well here is the odds on favorite for NL Cy Young. There’s no need to go deep into Sandy’s stats, they’re incredible across the board. In fact, I’ll go as far to say he’s been poor by his standards lately. He’s allowed 10 runs in his last 4 starts. Woeful! Well, even during that stretch that’s only a 2.84 ERA because he’s pitched 31.2 (almost 8 innings a game) during it. If the Marlins put up 4 runs today, they will win the game. The Angels offense is a woeful 29th over the last 3 weeks and are coming off a sweep in Houston. Traveling to Miami now with Syndergaard who is horrific on the road (6.53 ERA), I expect nothing less than a Sandy dominance and Marlins victory.

Pick: Marlins ML -140 (1.5u)

Justin Casterline - Getty Images

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers (7:10 ET)

Favorite: Guardians -155

Total: 9

Pitchers: Cal Quantrill (3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Drew Hutchison (4.81 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)

The Tigers have taken the first two games if this homestand and in an effort to take this 4 game series they’re throwing their new starter Drew Hutchison who has been down right abysmal. He’s only pitched 8.2 innings since starting, but he’s logged a 5.19 ERA and only struck out 2 batters. This has been par for the course with the rest of the season and sadly his career, where he’s posted over a 5 xERA in every season thus far in the majors. Expect him to reignite a struggling Cleveland offense early and be taken out around the 4th inning.

Quantrill has been solid this year. There’s no other way to put it really, he’s just a tick above average. He’ll never have a dominating performance, nor seemingly a horrific one, and he does a lot of the little things right. He doesn’t give out free baserunners and he pitches into soft contact. Arguably his best outing came in his last game where he went 8 innings and only allowed 3 runs. I doubt he goes that deep today, but expect him to provide the Guardians with a respectable outing, which should be more than enough against Hutchison.

Pick: Guardians ML -155 (1u)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (7:10 ET)

Favorite: Red Sox -125

Total: 9.5

Pitchers: Jeffrey Springs (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs. Nick Pivetta (3.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)

Another reliever turned starter with Springs today as he takes the mound in Boston looking to give some good innings after a bullpen for both teams yesterday. He’s been fantastic this year for the Rays, even in adjusting to his new role as starter. In May he had a 1.90 ERA which regressed to a 3.04 in June, but he’s still been solid behind a brilliant slider. While his overall portfolio has been good, he’s slipped up recently against the Pirates and Orioles, allowing 7 runs on 14 hits in his last 10.1 innings. Not a good streak you’d like to continue going into Boston where they’re 3rd against Lefties over the past few weeks and 6th on the season.

Nick Pivetta is quietly making his case for the All-Star game after posting another fantastic month. He’s allowed just 6 runs in his last 28 innings and is doing so behind that filthy knucklecurve. Expect more of the same against a Rays offense that continues to struggle to find its feet, and for the Red Sox to take another game from them in this vital division clash.

Pick: Red Sox ML -125 (1u) & u9.5 -115 (1u)

Winslow Towson - Getty Images

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