Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds (6:40 ET)
Favorite: Dodgers -155
Pitchers: Tyler Anderson (2.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) vs. Luis Castillo (3.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Tyler Anderson has been nothing short of elite this year and should be in contention for the NL Cy Young. He’s posting top tier stats in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage (only 29.9), and never gives free runners on base. He’s allowed only 1 run in his last 4 games with the exception of a 5 run outing against the White Sox. His issue today might be that his offense might not support him much. They’re 3rd this season in OPS, but only 20th in the month of June. They’ve struggled to find runs without Mookie Betts and might continue today against Luis Castillo.
Castillo has been nothing but consistent this year. He almost always goes 6 innings, and the most runs he’s allowed all year is 3. He‘s slightly worse at home but behind his lightning 4-seam fastball that is getting hit to the tune of a .107 BA, he’s turning in a solid season. What interests me further is the Reds offense. They’re about the inverse of the Dodgers - 23rd in OPS for the season but 9th in June. Furthermore, they’re 4th in June against LHP. As a sizable dog, give me the Reds to tie or have a lead in the first five innings.
Pick: Reds F5 +0.5 -125 (1u)
David Kohl - USA Today
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins (6:40 ET)
Favorite: Marlins -200
Pitchers: Chad Kuhl (3.70 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs. Pablo Lopez (2.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
Chad Kuhl has the grueling job of pitching the pitching in the thin air of Denver. He’s made a career in Pittsburgh hovering around a mid 4 ERA, and this year has shockingly been even better. He’s allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, and is certain to give you an okay outing on the mound. Pitching in the top half of innings will be Pablo Lopez, who has been exceptional in nearly every area except how hard people hit him when they do. He’s been struggling recently, allowing 4 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. Both of these offenses are near each other in every category, and I’ll take a flier on the Rockies to keep it close early for plus money.
Pick: Rockies F5 +0.5 +110 (1u) & YRFI +105 (0.5u)
Ron Chenoy - USA Today
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles (7:05 ET)
Favorite: Orioles -150
Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (6.59 ERA, 1.77 WHIP) vs. Tyler Wells (3.62 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
It’s bewildering to me how Patrick Corbin still has a job in the majors. You can’t tell me that the Nationals don’t have anybody in their system that is worth a call-up to give a shot. In his last 3 games, Corbin has been better (by his standards. In 15.1 IP, he’s allowed only 9 runs on 27 baserunners. Spoiler, that’s still horrible. He’s worse away from home, posting a 7.47 ERA and is going against a gritty Orioles team sporting Wells on the mound tonight. Wells has been solid so far, allowing 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5, and is much better at home (2.66 ERA) than he is away (4.25 ERA). Give me the Orioles even with a ton of juice.
Pick: Orioles F5 -0.5 -113 (1u)
Scott Taetsch - USA Today
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
Favorite: Red Sox -135
Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (3.13 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) vs. Michael Wacha (2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
We all know by now just how highly touted a prospect Tarik Skubal is. He’s been excellent this year even though he’s coming off of some bad performances. His advanced metrics are stellar across the board with the exception of how often he gets hard hit and the velocity of those balls. What concerns me about this bump he’s on is that in his last 3 games he’s allowed 3+ runs and they were to the Pirates, Blue Jays (okay, sure) and Rangers. Going up against a Red Sox lineup scares me especially with Michael Wacha on the mound. He’s about the inverse of Skubal in that he doesn’t get hit hard at all, but his advanced metrics have been poor. That doesn’t really matter when you’re posting a 2.28 ERA and have allowed just 4 runs in your last 24.1 IP. Boston is 8th in OPS against LHP this year, and that will continue tonight, even if they only post 3 or 4 runs.
Pick: Red Sox ML -135 (1u)
Kirby Lee - USA Today