Not So Early NFL Week 5 Best Bets

I want to start off with two apologies. First of all, sorry that my usual Early NFL Bets column is late, leaving us with some lines that are beginning to settle into place, instead of lines where we may be grabbing early value. I am already shifting gears into NBA mode, and you can see the season props and futures markets I have been head-first diving into over in the Basketball section of the site! Secondly, I apologize for jinxing myself last week. I refuse to directly apologize for losing, but flexing the 3-1 Week 3 record surely led to a 0-3 record in Week 4, right? Anyways, here are a couple of plays I am looking to grab in the mid-week before Sunday.

H/T to Gary A. Vasquez and USA TODAY Sports for the photo.


Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos

Broncos -3.5

Total: 42.0


It has been a shocking and rough start to the season for both of the teams featuring in Thursday night's Peyton Manning Bowl. On one side, the Colts started better than I highlighted they would in my AFC South Preview piece, as 1-1-1 is much better than 0-3. However, I did not account for an underwhelming performance hosting the Titans in Indy, as well as Matt Ryan looking like Indy should've considered keeping Wentz. Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for this game, and Shaq Leonard is back on the injury report with a broken nose and concussion. Two key losses as the Colts head into Denver in a battle of whose coach has the hotter seat.


On the other hand, Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson's relationship running the offense has gone pretty close to how I predicted it to in my AFC West Preview, as Russell Wilson's version of running things has slowly but surely looked less reliable as have his physical abilities that we once knew. Javonte Williams has now gone down and is out for the rest of the season, which is not good news for a Broncos offense that cannot seem to figure out how to score and finish drives.


The Colts defense is banged up, but has proven they can stop the run which is unfamiliar territory for Colts fans who are used to watching teams succeed running the ball right up the middle over the past decade. Houston's pair of backs only totaled 77 rushing yards, and Kansas City's rushing corps only accumulated 29 rushing yards against Indy in Weeks 1 and 3. James Robinson was able to gain 64 yards rushing, and Derrick Henry is the outlier with 114 rushing yards.


Melvin Gordon will be taking over in Javonte Williams absence, but third stringer Mike Boone is already being mentioned in conversations as sharing responsibilities with Gordon at runningback on Thursday. Gordon has accumulated 58, 47, 26, and 8 yards in the past four weeks, with his carries going down significantly last week. I believe this weeks number of 58.5 rushing yards is too high against a Colts defense that has proven they can stop the run. Gordon may not get the opportunities people are expecting him to, which is why your favorite fantasy football analysts have been yelling to add Mike Boone for Week 5. Give me the under, and I'm not talking about the total as that is gross.


The Play: Melvin Gordon u58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) - 1.5 Units


S/O to Kyle Terada and USA TODAY Sports for the photo.


6-Pt Teaser (-110) - 1.5 Units

- Cleveland Browns +8.5

- San Francisco 49ers -1

Yes, I am back with another teaser. I am not giving up until we figure this out, and I have found two legs I feel great about once again. I am 0-4 on Teasers so far this season, with one still open in Indianapolis +8.5 on Thursday. That play does not look as smart as it did a week ago, but let's stop dwelling on the past and talk about why these two legs ARE smart.


The Cleveland Browns are the only team in the NFL with a 0.0 point differential against the spread this season. With a 2.5 margin of victory through four games, Cleveland has kept things super close to start the season with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. The Browns' defense is made up of massive bullies and freak athletes, but the offense has not looked as poor as some expected it to. The case to be made here though is how poor the competition has been, getting to start the season against the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons.


Meanwhile, a banged-up Justin Herbert and company stumble into Cleveland with a 2-2 start and fresh off a victory at Houston. They are back on the road for a back-to-back road stint and may have a harder time against Cleveland than they did against Houston. This Chargers defense that many touted to be one of the best in the league has allowed 19 to Vegas, 27 to Kansas City, 38 to Jacksonville, and 24 to Houston so far this season. If the Browns offense is actually halfway decent like we think it is, I think the travel and injuries may not be in the Chargers favor here.


The Niners play is a bit simpler. The Baker Mayfield experiment in Charlotte has not gone as expected so far, which once again proves that former first-round quarterbacks playing for their second team is one of the most out-of-fashion trends in the NFL. San Fran is coming off a huge win over the defending champion Rams, and should be a defensive nightmare for the Panthers offense. The under is a fair shout to look into as we all know I love a low under, but make sure you are doing your due diligence paying attention to the money and bet splits paired with the trends covered on this week's episode of "Sharpen the Public" by DeejHHSports and the team.


Let's put a teaser in the win column, and keep my prop bet record strong as they have gone positive 3 of the 4 weeks so far!

 

Stay tuned as we continue to put out more NFL content as the season goes along. We also will have plenty of college football reactions, best bets, and UFC previews coming your way, so make sure to keep an eye out on our socials below! Finally, I have been putting a lot of my time into getting basketball content started back up, so check out the season props I have so far if you are looking to place a few futures before the NBA season gets going in less than two weeks!


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Sharpen The Public Podcast Ep 3(Week 4 Recap, Week 5 Preview):

- New Episode is on the way Friday, October 7!



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