NFL Week 9 Picks and Analysis | Sunday, November 6, 2022

We are back for Week 9 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.

Last week we bounced back from our first negative week in a while. Finishing slightly positive at 7-6. The article plays have been great, but Thursday Night and Monday Night games have been killers. The last three night games in the NFL have ended within 0.5 point (!!!) of the Vegas total, pretty wild. However, positive is positive and I am looking forward to another great week of NFL games. I am excited because we are effectively using these trends and profiting, there is not much better. Even if you are not taking my plays, I hope everyone is able to learn from some of these trends. Here is how you could have used the trends to find some winners last week:

  • Patriots had 68% of the money (13-3 ATS b/w 65-69% money) and covered.

  • Cowboys had a 19% sharp differential (33-17 ATS) and covered (GEICO Trend).

  • Seahawks had 66% of the money (13-3 ATS b/w 65-69% money) and covered.

  • Lions/Dolphins 29% sharp differential on over (12-6 over with greater than 20% sharps toward over) and game went over.

  • Broncos/Jags 54% sharp differential on under (51-30 when sharps are on the under)

Every week there is something to learn from and we are able to gather more data. It is really important to highlight how these are trends and indicate how games are likely to turn out based on how the public is betting. However, no trend is perfect and I want that to be clear. I use the trends after I have looked through the slate and picked where I believe games will end up. If the trends disagree with me I will stay away, but if they agree then it gives me more confidence. I think we are getting the hang of this as through week 9 people have been telling me the trends are working for them too. That makes me so excited and gives me exactly what I need to keep providing the information for everyone. Anyways, I know you guys are here to learn about the public betting trends so let's get into those! A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to focus on the important ones here. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter! I am very active there and tweet out any changes to my plays since the public bet % and money % can change at any minute.

  • The public is 55-66 ATS to date. They went an incredible 10-5 last week and it was by far the publics best week in 2022. This to me gives signals that the public will be bad this week, but take that with a grain of salt. I joked about it on the podcast, but maybe we should take every team the public is not on? If you have followed my posts you'll know the public is usually more bad between the ranges of 60-75%, though. Here are all the teams the public is on (as of 10 am EST), with bolded ones between the publics worst range ATS: Vikings, Panthers, Jets, Patriots, Raiders, Dolphins, Lions, Chargers, Seahawks, Rams, Titans

  • The key money percentage trend include teams with greater than 65% of the money/handle being 34-22 ATS and teams specifically in the range of 65-70% of the money being 13-3 ATS to date. It's a tight range to fit into, so it is important to consider this as close to gametime as possible. The only team that currently fits this trend is the Panthers, and teams that fit the greater than 65% criteria are: Commanders, Panthers, Raiders, Seahawks, Buccaneers

  • The Under is king this year when it comes to totals. When the money percentage is on the under, those games are 49-28 towards the under, when the sharps are on the under, those games are 51-30 to the under, and when the public is on the over, those games are 44-26 to the under. I love seeing the public on the over and the money on the under, based on the above trends it is clearly doing well. Here are the games where that is the case: Panthers/Bengals, Seahawks/Cardinals, Rams/Bucs, Titans/Chiefs

  • The only positive over trend I have is that when the sharp differential is greater than 20% towards the over, those games are 15-6 to the over (3-0 last week). Here are the games with that as of right now: Dolphins/Bears, Chargers/Falcons

  • Lastly, everyone's favorite trend throughout the year has been when the sharp differential is 15% or more. I have dubbed it the GEICO trend on the podcast and one day it will catch on or they will sponsor us. This trend was 19-2 through week 4, but through week 8 has moved to 32-17 ATS. So, clearly some regression. Looking deeper into that trend we can find that specifically between 20 and 30% sharp differentials, teams are 20-6 ATS (above 30% is 0-3 ATS). Something that is very profitable, and should be considered for everyone's bets. This is the updated GEICO trend. An important thing to note about it is that the sharp differential, no matter the value, is 61-60 ATS to date. So, anything below the Geico trend (15%) is 29-43 ATS. When placing your bets, please consider the sharp differential. As of right now, here are the teams that fit the Geico trend (bolded teams have between 20-30%): Commanders, Panthers, Colts, Raiders, Bears, Chargers, Buccaneers

Note that I am writing this around 10 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. All trends are subject to regression. I will continue to say I am betting with these trends because I love tracking them and find them fascinating. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider subscribing (for free) to help us out!

The Plays Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears (+4.5), Total 45.5 Coming off one of the easiest hits we have had all year (the Dolphins/Lions over) we seem to get another favorable total in a Dolphins game. Like the Bills, this team can score in an instant. They are now playing the Bears, the 30th ranked defense and a team that is a surprising 4-4 to the over. With Tua, Waddle, and Hill all active in this game I see them scoring early and the Bears being forced to move the ball quicker than usual. The Dolphins only have the 24th best defense as well, so Fields and his new teammate Chase Claypool may begin to run some havoc. From a public betting angle, this fits our 20%+ sharp differential towards the over trend. Something that is 15-6 to the over and went 3-0 last week. I am not on them often, but they're very fun to bet on. Over. Play: Over 45.5, -118 (1u) Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions +3.5), Total: 49.5 One of the first divisional matchups for this Sunday comes in the form of Aaron Rodgers vs. the TJ Hockenson-less Detroit Lions. Historically, everything points to the Packers here. Coming off a loss and in a divisional game, Packers' stats are pretty crazy. Like LaFleur after a loss is 85% ATS and Rodgers in a divisional game is 64% ATS. The Lions are going to be missing a beat here on offense, and while the above stats do not include the fact that the Packers do not have Davante Adams, I like Rodgers to bounce back here. The Lions have the public on them as well as the money with an 11% sharp differential in their favor. We know when teams do not reach the 15% differential they are 29-43 ATS, so I am backing the Packers today, they need this one to keep playoff hopes. Play: Packers -3.5, -114 (1u) Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5), Total 47.5 The raiders are coming off being shutout by the New Orleans Saints while the Jaguars are traveling back from London after a defeat from Wilson and the Broncos. This year, teams coming home from London have not performed very well. I really expect the Raiders to bounce back against a team that PFF ranks as the 29th best in the NFL. On paper, this Raiders offense should be able to whether whatever defensive scheme Pederson and his personnel are cooking up. Additionally, the Raiders have 76% of the money and a 19% sharp differential. This puts them into two of our positive trends with the money and the GEICO Trend for the sharps, so I am rolling with the Raiders today. Play: Raiders -2.5, -110 (1u) Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), Total 42 A game that would have been considered game of the week in the preseason, has now become the battle of two teams fighting for a wild card spot. If you would have told me I would LIKE the UNDER in the Rams and Bucs game when it was sitting at a whopping 42.5 points before the season started I would have told you you are out of your mind. But here we are. These are two top tier (on a good day) quarterbacks that do not want to give the ball away. The Rams have the 3rd best defense in the NFL and the Bucs defense is ranked 17th (it has certainly seen better days). This will be an ugly game, both teams will try to dominate on the ground and there will be multiple turnovers to slow the game down even further. As of right now the public is on the over and the money is on the under, which you know I love. Sharps on the under at a 45% differential. My only under of today and I love it. under.

Play: Under 42.5, -105 (1u)

Two Team 5.5 Pt Teaser: Colts vs. Patriots (-4.5) and Vikings vs. Commanders (+3) A bit of new territory here for me as I try a teaser for the first time in an article. Andy discusses teasers and the Wong method OFTEN on the podcast, so it was bound to happen. We will start with the Commanders. Firstly, the Vikings have been my least favorite team to bet on this year. Kirk Cousins is a whopping 13-22-1 ATS after a win with Minnesota and its essentially a primetime game in his head as he makes his return to Washington. Sharps are currently all over the Commanders and I expect by kickoff it'll fall into the updated GEICO trend. As for the Colts, Bill and the Patriots are usually very very good against rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots are better than the Colts in every sense of the word, yet the line is only 4.5 points. The public is on the pats here at 60% right now and the money is on the Colts. I am backing the trends here, but teasing it because I am not sure the Colts can get to 4.5. 5.5 pt teaser to get them to 10 at a decent price. Here's to my first teaser!

Play: 2 Leg 5.5 pt Teaser, Colts +10 & Commanders +8.5, -120 (1u)

Additional play(s) with no write up:

  • Chargers/Falcons o49.5 (Sharps on over at 48%)

  • Something to come for Seahawks, unsure what yet. They are my favorite team to bet on. Follow my twitter for when I tweet the play out.

Will tweet something out for the Sunday Night Game, I want to see where the percentages fall first. Great slate today, let's get into it!

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If you like this type of content then you will absolutely want to check out our baseball, football (pro and college), basketball (pro and college), and soccer posts at these links! We post daily content and best bets, so please subscribe to never miss a post! I encourage you to interact with us on social media as well or give us any constructive criticism. We are always looking for ways to improve the site and we value your feedback. Socials: Main Twitter: @HHSportsHQ Andy Twitter: @AndyHHSports Rick Twitter: @RickHHSports Deej Twitter: @DeejHHSports PT Twitter: @PTsBestTakes Instagram: @happyhoursportshq TikTok: @happyhoursports Facebook: happyhoursportshq

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