• Deej

NFL Week 8 Picks and Analysis | Sunday, October 30, 2022




We are back for Week 8 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets. Last week we had our first negative week in a while. Not too bad though (-1.7u), and the name of the game is mitigating losses - time to bounce back. I am excited because we are effectively using these trends and profiting, there is not much better. Even if you are taking my plays, I hope everyone is able to learn from some of these trends. Here is how you could have used the trends to find some winners last week:

  • Commanders had a 26% sharp differential (19-5 ATS) and covered.

  • Broncos had a 41% sharp differential (0-3 ATS) and did not cover.

  • Saints had a 61% of the money (6-16 ATS) and did not cover.

  • Lions/Cowboys 29% sharp differential on under (43-26 under) and game went under.

  • Falcons/Bengals 49% sharp differential on over (12-6 overs greater than 20% sharps)

Although last week was a bad week for the sharp differential and money percentage on the spreads, you can can still see how powerful these trends can be when combined with games you like, or even when you don't like games. However, they are not a perfect science. We managed to hit the over in the Thursday night game, so we look to build off of that for Week 8. I'm honestly really surprised to see Brady continue to lose, but I expect they will find a way to turn their season around and get to the playoffs. Anyways, I know you guys are here to learn about the public betting trends so lets get into those! A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to focus on the important ones here. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter!

  • The public is 45-61 ATS to date. Between the betting percentages of 60%-75%, teams in that public betting range are 14-24 ATS. All other public percentages totaled are 31-37 ATS. Essentially, if you're looking to fade the public, do so when teams have between 60-75% of the bets. Teams that currently fit this criteria for Week 8 are: Eagles, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, Commanders, Niners, Bengals

  • The key money percentage trends include teams with greater than 65% of the money/handle being 28-20 ATS and teams specifically in the range of 65-70% of the money being 11-2 ATS to date. It's a tight range to fit into, so it is important to consider this as close to gametime as possible. The only team that currently fits this trend is the Seahawks, and teams that fit the greater than 65% criteria are: Patriots, Raiders, Cardinals, Commanders, Niners, Seahawks, Packers

  • The Under is king this year when it comes to totals. When the money percentage is on the under, those games are 37-23 towards the under, when the sharps are on the under, those games are 43-26 to the under, and when the public is on the over, those games are 44-26 to the under. I love seeing the public on the over and the money on the under, based on the above trends it is clearly doing well. The only positive over trend I have is that when the sharp differential is greater than 20% towards the over, those games are 12-6 to the over. Here are the games with that as of right now: Dolphins/Lions, Cardinals/Vikings

  • Lastly, everyone's favorite trend throughout the year has been when the sharp differential is 15% or more. I have dubbed it the Geico trend on the podcast and one day it will catch on. This trend was 19-2 through week 4, but through week 8 has moved to 29-15 ATS. So, clearly some regression. Looking deeper into that trend we can find that specifically between 20 and 30% sharp differentials, teams are 19-5 ATS (above 30% is 0-3 ATS). Something that is very profitable, and should be considered for everyone's bets. This is the updated Geico trend. An important thing to note about it is that the sharp differential, no matter the value, is 53-53 ATS to date. So, anything below the Geico trend (15%) is 24-38 ATS. When placing your bets, please consider the sharp differential. As of right now, here are the teams that fit the Geico trend (bolded teams have between 20-30%): Falcons, Cowboys, Lions, Cardinals, Texans, Niners, Seahawks, Packers, Browns.

Note that I am writing this around 11 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. All trends are subject to regression. I will continue to say I am betting with these trends because I love tracking them and find them fascinating. Thank you for reading about my trends, I love to track them and the feedback I am getting on Twitter and Reddit make me so excited to keep grinding them out. I am very excited to announce that I have also started tracking this type of information for the NBA and plan to add more sports in the future! So, if you like this type of information, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Reddit, and subscribe to the site, so you never miss it. Let's get into my plays! The Plays Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-4), Total 41 Our first play of the day comes to us from an NFC South matchup between two surprise teams this year. The Falcons are playing like a contender and the tanking Panthers managed to beat Tom Brady and hold him to 3 points last week. The Falcons (and the Giants) are the best team ATS this season. If you have been able to watch their games, you would also know they very much deserve that title. Mariota has this offense humming, and I do not see how the Carolina defense can stop them. Carolina has the 27th best defense in the NFL and the 30th best offense. They are coming off their game of the year and the Falcons are currently in the Geico trend, that's about all I need to take the best ATS team here. Play: Falcons -4, -110, (1u) New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3), Total: 45 Who would have thought before the season started that this would be a game of the week between some juggernauts in the NFL. The NFC West leading Seahawks take on the 6-1 Giants in Seattle. I have been fading the Giants all year and it has certainly backfired. But, that does not mean I won't do it again. The spread says these teams are pretty much evenly matched, just adjusting the 3 points for the home field advantage, but the deeper stats tell a different story. Geno Smith has the Seahawks ranked with the 5th best offense in the NFL, while the Giants have the 31st best defense. I believe Pete Carroll will gameplan for Saquon very well because that is all the Giants have that would beat the Seahawks. Give me the Seahawks to put the Giants back in their place. Oh yeah, and the Seahawks have a 19% sharp differential right now. Play: Seahawks -3, -115 (1u) Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals (+4), Total 48.5 The Vikings may be 5-1, but they are 2-4 against the spread and they are coming off of a bye. The Cardinals are coming off a Thursday night win against the Saints, so they also have extended time to gameplan for the Vikings. This is a game, in my opinion, where the teams are much more evenly matched. Therefore, I think this line is too much given the Vikings inability to cover and the Cardinals showing more of their strengths as of late. Hopkins is back and as he slowly integrated himself back into the offense against the Saints, we saw how dangerous this team can be. The Cardinals are without James Conner, but they have Kyler Murray to take the rushes and we know the Cardinals are a much better team when Murray is running around. Sharp differential is at 22% for the Cards, so I love them here. Play: Cardinals +4, -110 (1u) Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions (+4), Total 51.5 The Dolphins and Lions are two teams this year who clearly know how to score points. 4 out of the 6 games for the Lions have gone over and with Tua the Dolphins offense can be electric. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be the scariest WR duo for defenses to face and the Lions have the worst defense in the NFL. The Lions will need to play catch up all game and coming off of a game against the Cowboys where they could not get it done offensively, I expect them to come out swinging. There are not many positive public betting trends when it comes to the over, but there is one. When the sharp differential is towards the over and greater than 20%, the over is 12-6. I love my unders, but am rooting for points here. Play: Over 51.5, -115 (1u) Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers (+1), Total 42 The Niners have had the Rams number for the last several matchups between these teams (that were not in the playoffs) including the first meeting of these teams early in the year. This is consistently a gritty matchup between teams with great defenses and I expect nothing different from this one. The public is 65% on the over (which we know is bad) and the money is 67% on the under (which we know is good). That leads to a huge pros vs. joes matchup on the total here, and usually it is best to back the pros. This game will be closer than the one earlier in the year, I see it as a 20-17 win, who knows which side will get it done. Play: Under 42, -110 (1u) Additional play(s) with no write up:

  • Texans/Titans u39.5 (public on over and money on under)

  • Commanders/Colts u39.5 (same as above)

Will tweet something out for the Sunday Night Game, I want to see where the percentages fall first. Great slate today, let's get into it!

Thank you for checking us out! Remember we post UFC Cards/Podcast, NFL Content, and NBA Best Bets every week. PODCAST EVERY FRIDAY.

 

If you like this type of content then you will absolutely want to check out our baseball, football (pro and college), basketball (pro and college), and soccer posts at these links! We post daily content and best bets, so please subscribe to never miss a post! I encourage you to interact with us on social media as well or give us any constructive criticism. We are always looking for ways to improve the site and we value your feedback. Socials: Main Twitter: @HHSportsHQ Andy Twitter: @AndyHHSports Rick Twitter: @RickHHSports Deej Twitter: @DeejHHSports PT Twitter: @PTsBestTakes Instagram: @happyhoursportshq TikTok: @happyhoursports Facebook: happyhoursportshq

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