We are back for Week 7 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.
Last week we had our best week to date at 11-4 and up 5.7 units. I am excited because we are effectively using these trends and profiting, there is not much better. Here is how I used the trends to pick some of our winners last week (trends for the results will be in parenthesis):
Steelers had a 22% sharp differential (27-8 ATS) AND between 65-70% money% (11-1 ATS)
Broncos had a 22% sharp differential (27-8 ATS)
Broncos/Chargers had a 50% sharp differential towards the under (42-23 under)
Bills/Chiefs the public was all over the over at 61% (public is 21-38 on overs this year)
New England/Browns total had 40% sharps towards the over (10-3 over)
This is just a snapshot into how powerful these trends can be when combined with games you like, or even when you don't like games. However, they are not a perfect science. Sadly, we did start Week 7 off poorly with my two tweeted out plays going 0-2. It happens, I trusted Andy Dalton in primetime and underestimated how much impact DHop would have in his first week back. Anyways, I know you guys are here to learn about the public betting trends so lets get into those! A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to focus on the important ones here. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter!
The public is 38-55 ATS to date. Between the betting percentages of 60%-75%, teams in that public betting range are 9-23 ATS. All other public percentages totaled are 29-32 ATS. Essentially, if you're looking to fade the public, do so when teams have between 60-75% of the bets. Teams that currently fit this criteria are: Buccaneers, Ravens, Jets, Seahawks, Chiefs
The key money percentage trends include teams with greater than 65% of the money/handle being 27-15 ATS and teams specifically in the range of 65-70% of the money being 11-1 ATS to date. It's a tight range to fit into, so it is important to consider this as close to gametime as possible. The only team that currently fits this trend is the Jaguars, and teams that fit the greater than 65% criteria are: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Commanders, Lions, Ravens, Texans, Seahawks
When it comes to totals, the under is king. The public is 21-38 when the bet on the over this year, and when the sharp differential is in favor of the under, the under is 42-23 in those games. More specifically, when the sharp differential is greater than 15% in favor of the under, the under is 31-17 in those games. Here are the games that currently fit this criteria: Titans/Colts, Panthers/Bucs, Commanders/Packers, Lions/Cowboys, Jets/Broncos, Texans/Raiders, Bears/Patriots
Lastly, everyone's favorite trend throughout the year has been when the sharp differential is 15% or more. I have dubbed it the Geico trend on the podcast and one day it will catch on. This trend was 19-2 through week 4, but through week 7 has moved to 27-8 ATS. Something that is very profitable, and should be considered for everyone's bets. An important thing to note about it is that the sharp differential, no matter the value, is 49-44 ATS to date. So, anything below the Geico trend is 22-36 ATS. When placing your bets, please consider the sharp differential. As of right now, here are the teams that fit the Geico trend: Jaguars, Commanders, Lions, Broncos, Texans, Seahawks, Bears
Note that I am writing this around 10 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. In previous years the sharp percentage came back to be close to 50/50. I will continue to say I am betting with these trends until they turn south on me, and that has yet to happen.
Thank you for reading about my trends, I love to track them and the feedback I am getting on Twitter and Reddit make me so excited to keep grinding them out. I am very excited to announce that I have also started tracking this type of information for the NBA and plan to add more sports in the future! So, if you like this type of information, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Reddit, and subscribe to the site, so you never miss it. Let's get into my plays!
New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), Total 43.5
I said in the podcast this week, that is really weird to see the Giants +3 at 5-1 to the 2-4 Jaguars in this spot. So, this instantly feels like a trap line. PFF ranks the Giants defense as 31st in the league with a Strength of Schedule played of 25th. On the other hand, the Jaguars defense is ranked 20th with the 14th most difficult strength of schedule. What this shows me is that the Giants record is a bit above how they should be playing, while the Jaguars are the opposite. Vegas is clearly taking a stance on this line, and I am here for it. The public is slightly on the Giants here and the money is heavy towards the Jags putting them into both the 11-1 money trend and the Geico trend at my time of writing. You know I love those values. Doug Pederson also has a decent history against the Giants (I think 8-2 as a coach), so I expect him and the Jags defense to pull this one out.
Play: Jags -3, -118, (1u)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5), Total: 41.5
Another AFC South divisional matchup, I didn't realize how right Andy was when he said on the podcast how many divisional games the Colts had in the beginning of the year, it literally feels like its every week at this point. These teams have already played this year and the total ended at 41. 34 points in the first half and a whopping 7 points in the second half. I expect this game to reverse in terms of pace, where the first half will start slow and we may see more scoring in the second half. They have seen each other, and both want to prevent against the quick start we saw the Titans jump out to last game. From a public betting standpoint, anytime the public/money/sharps are toward an under, that has been great for an under. Right now, they are all towards the under, so I have to agree. Lastly, Ron Torbert is reffing this game and he is 29-9-1 toward the under in his career...
Play: u42.5 -105, (1u)
Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinatti Bengals (-6.5), Total 47.5
For what feels like the first time this year (not actually sure if this is true), the public is on the under, while the money is on the over. And the money is HEAVY on the over at 93% right now. We have not found many positive trends when it comes to overs this year, but that means there are a few. In relation to this game, I want to point out when games have a greater than 20% sharp towards the over, the over is 10-3 in those games. Additionally, when the money % is greater than 75% on the over, then the over is 9-6 in those games. While the trends may not stand out as much, this is a great time to back the sharps on the over in my opinion. Both of these teams are capable of scoring a lot of points and doing it quickly. The Bengals just put up 30 to the Saints defense and the Falcons just put up 28 to the niners defense. I love my unders, but this is an over play.
Play: Over 47.5, -110 (1u)
Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders (+4.5), Total 41.5
The Commanders may be better with Heinicke at quarterback than with Wentz. Taylor knows the offense since he started a bunch of games last year and threw for almost 3500 yards and 20 touchdowns. The Packers have a good team, but have not been playing well. Dropping games to both New York teams has the Packers in desperation mode I would assume. Additionally, the public is on the Packers at 58% right now while the money is coming in on the Commanders at 70%. That gives the Commies a large sharp differential well over our Geico trend and puts them into other positive betting trend categories. I do not have much else to say on this game other than I am backing the Commies to look better with Heinicke and I love a home dog.
Play: Commanders +4.5, -110 (1u)
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos (+1.5), Total: 36.5
The lowest total of the day is brought to us in a matchup between two surprising AFC teams. I think the Jets are far outperforming their expectation while the Broncos are the other side of that coin. Thankfully, the Broncos are not in primetime this weekend. They are however, without their star quarterback. Interestingly enough, despite the loss of Russell Wilson, the Broncos have a +41% sharp differential AND the public is on the Jets. Even though I have not gotten around to adding this criteria to my spreadsheet, I have had a lot of positive outcomes when I bet on teams the money is on and the public is against. I expect the strong Broncos defense to surprise the Jets, and I love that they are also home. Rypien is not the worst quarterback in the league, so I expect the Broncos can still pull this out.
Play: Broncos ML +108 (1u)
Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Radiers (-7), Total 45.5
The Houston Texans have the worst running defense in the league. As of late, it seems like Jacobs is back to dominating as a workhorse back. Using these two factors, I expect the Raiders to easily control the game and time of possession using the run. The Raiders should easily be able to come out on top, as the Texans have yet to cross 20 points on the road this year. It honestly feels like a 30-7 game in favor of the Raiders in my opinion. The public betting trends would tend to agree with me as well, since the public is on the over and the money is on the under. Like I said in the preface, sharps on the under are 42-23 to date, so I will continue to back that trend.
Play: Under 45.5, -104 (1u)
Additional play(s) with no write up:
Lions/Cowboys u49.5 (public on over and money on under, blind tail)
Will tweet something out for the Sunday Night Game, I want to see where the percentages fall first.
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