We are back for Week 6 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.
Last week was an awesome turn around for us at 10-5 over the entire week. I think I am really starting to get a grip on managing these trends and using them to my advantage, I hope you are too. Last week was great for us from a data sense, we saw some trends hit a small regression bump, but we also saw other trends continue to be on fire. We also saw it pay off in the Thursday Night Game with the first half under and full game under. Let's keep that momentum headed in today's games! The most stand out trend to this point went 5-4 last week and moves teams with a greater than 15% sharp differential to 24-6! An absolutely insane trend that I am going to try and follow this week; last week was the bit of regression here, so let's hope it picks back up. Another great trend is teams with greater the 65% of the handle are 23-13 to date. A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to explain some others here as well. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter!
As of today, the public is 33-46 ATS (they went 3-13 ATS last week). Other glaring trends are the public does not do great between the ranges of 60-70% (23% win percentage), and when the money percentage is between than 65%-69% those teams are 10-1. Teams that currently follow the 24-6 trend I stated above are listed below (remember these are subject to change before game time):
Steelers, Saints, Falcons, Dolphins, Panthers, Eagles, Broncos
Note that I am writing this around 11 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. In previous years the sharp percentage came back to be close to 50/50.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10), Total 46.
Kenny Pickett is not getting any breaks by having to play against Josh Allen and Tom Brady in his first two starts. Luckily for him, the Bucs do not look like the team we thought they were going to be. Brady is in his own head or something and they are winning games, just not by margins by which everyone figured they would. I expect this game to follow the same trend. The Steelers offense showed some flashes last week, but were unable to convert vs. a superb Bills defense. As of right now, the Steelers also have 73% of the money, greater than 30% of the sharps, AND the Bucs are in the 60-69% public range. That is the Holy Trinity right now of public betting trends and I will happily back the Steelers +10 at home here.
Play: Stelers +10, -115, (1u)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2.5), Total: 50.5
If you told me at the beginning of the year that Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks would have the best offense in football, I would have called you crazy. Although, I did expect them to be good and hit their win total for the year in my NFC West preview. This is a tough divisional matchup where the Cardinals will need to win to show their teeth. However, even without Rashaad Penny, I think the Seahawks can come out on top. The Cardinals looked incredibly flat last week in the first half of the Eagles game and only started coming alive when Murray began running the ball more. I expect Pete Carroll has a game plan to stop that having faced him so many times, and we are getting close to a COD release, Kyler's mind is elsewhere. From a trends standpoint, we have had a lot of success betting on teams that the money is on, but the public is against, and the Hawks fit that trend. Feel free to take their ML here.
Play: Seahawks +2.5, -106, (1u)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts (-7.5), Total: 41.
Last week the Colts put up a whopping 12 points vs. the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night. They have had more time to prepare for this game, but it is a divisional matchup. I love divisional matchup unders, and this is the perfect game to take it in. The Colts offense is garbage, the Jags defense is good. Additionally, there is around 67% of the bets on the over, but 90% (!) of the money is on the under. If you have been reading my posts as of recent, high money on unders is great, especially when the public is on the over. You know we love our unders here at Happy Hour Sports, so I am betting with them until it bites me, which I don't think it ever will.
Play: Under 41 -110 (1u)
New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers (-7.5), Total 45.5
The only game this week where the public is on the over at a percentage higher than 75% right now, is this game. Through week 5, games that fit this criteria have hit the under 6 out of 6 times, yes a perfect trend. We make fun of this a lot on the pod, and I am glad a game is hitting this this week. I can totally see why the public is on the over here though, the Jets just put up 40 and the Packers are coming off of a rough loss. This is a clera public overreaction that we can take advantage of here. I am not sorry if you do not like betting unders, because they are insanely profitable this year, especially when betting against the public on overs. The public is 20-34 when they are on the over this yea. Today its another under.
Play: Under 45.5, -110 (1u)
New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns (+3.5), Total 45.5
As much as I tout the unders, I have not hit on an over this year. I only think I have bet on one a few times this year, but I want to try and hit them now that we have more positive trends for the over I am tracking. Right now, when sharp differentials are on the over at greater than 20%, those games have gone over 9 out of 11 times. The Patriots just put up 29 against a horrible defense and the Browns are scoring the ball well too. While it does scare me to bet on any Patriots over here, I think we have the perfect storm in this game. Both teams rank in the top 50% of offenses in the league, and the Browns have the easiest strength of schedule played. It is a matchup of fearsome quarterbacks, so lets hope Brissett and Zappe get us the over. Even though the public is good at betting unders, I really like that the public is on the under and the money is on the over here with high sharps.
Play: Over 43.5, -114 (1u)
Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins (+3), Total
Even though Skylar Thompson is starting this game, the Dolphins are better than the Vikings. The Vikings are currently 1-4 ATS and seem like one of the worst teams to back in betting. This game may be a shootout, but I think the Dolphins, especially with Tua, are far better than the Vikings. As of right now the Vikings have 63% of the bets (in the 60-69 range which is bad for them), the Dolphins have a 33% sharp AND they have 70% of the money, that is another team that falls into our Holy Trinity of public betting trends. You know I cannot bet away from that.
Play: Dolphins +3, -110 (1u)
Additional plays with no write up:
Eagles - 6.5 ( continuously rolling with the hot Birds. Phillies just got into the NLCS, Philadelphia will explode if they cap this weekend off right)
Will tweet others out throughout the day (especially something in the Bills game), I want to see where the percentages fall first. BoL if you tail or fade and thanks for reading!
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