We are back for Week 5 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.
Last week was a rough one for us seeing a 1-5 Sunday. Vegas reported their first loss of the season last week, and I think that plays into why I was on the wrong side in most games. Tom did not look like Tom, the Lions gave up 50 to Geno Smith, and the Cowboys are still somehow winning games. Last week was still good in a data sense, we saw these important trends grow even larger and that gives us some amazing information for today's games. We also saw it pay off in the Thursday Night Game with the first half under, full game under, and Colts +3.5. Let's keep that momentum headed in today's games! The most stand out trend to this point went 2-0 last week and moves teams with a greater than 15% sharp differential to 19-2! An absolutely insane trend that I am going to try and follow this week; regression is coming, so we have to be careful, though. Another great trend is teams with greater the 65% of the handle are 20-8 to date. A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to explain some others here as well. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter!
As of today, the public is 30-33 ATS. Other glaring trends are the public does not do great between the ranges of 60-70% (26% win percentage), and when the money percentage is greater than 65% those teams are 20-8. Teams that currently follow the 19-2 trend I stated above are listed below (remember these are subject to change before game time):
Patriots, Falcons, Seahawks, Bears, Browns, Eagles
Note that I am writing this around 10 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. In previous years the sharp percentage came back to be close to 50/50.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints (-5.5), Total 45.
The Seahawks just put up 50 points against the Detroit Lions (who may have one of the worst defenses in football). The Saints just lost a tight game in London vs. the Minnesota Vikings. I really enjoy the idea of fading the team traveling back from London without a bye. Geno Smith is proving he can keep the Seahawks in games and score some points. As of right now, the Seahawks are a part of our greater than 15% sharps trend and I love them in this spot. They are in the poor public percentage range as well (64% right now), but the more powerful trend is more beneficial here. I expect Geno and the Seahawks to come out hot against a slow New Orleans defense, this is just too many points for the Saints. They may get the win, but Seahawks cover here.
Play: Seahawks +5.5, -110, (1u)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (-14), Total: 45
Welcome Kenny Pickett to the NFL. He gets to face the best team in football as a welcome gift and I am scared for him. This total opened at 47 and has slowly crept down to 45.5 which is a bit more realistic than almost 50. I expect the Bills at -14 to easily take care of business against this rookie quarterback who has barely gotten his feet wet. The Bills defense is so good, the Bills may be the only team to score in this game. Additionally, the weather report shows some windy conditions (up to 20 mph). 66% of the bets are on the under and 75% of the money. All of these things together scream under to me, so I am slamming the under. Here is to the Bills winning 35-7.
Play: Under 45.5 -110, (1u)
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings (-7.5), Total: 44.5.
I thought I liked the Vikings in this game, but after thinking about it some more, I am on the Bears. This is a divisional game that I expect to stay close. Couple that with the fact that the Vikings are coming back from London without a bye, and it feels like the Bears should be able to lose by less than a touchdown or even surprise the Vikings. 36% of the bets are on the Bears and they have 59% of the money. This puts them in our greater than 15% sharp range, and puts the Vikings in the bad 60-70 range for the public. Lastly, the Vikings run defense has not been great, and the only thing the Bears do right is run the ball. Give me the Bears today!
Play: Bears +7.5 -110 (1u)
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5), Total 43.5
Similar to the Bears and Vikings game, I do not expect many points to be scored in this divisional matchup. The Jaguars did not look great against the Eagles last week, but it was horrible conditions so I will give them the benefit of the doubt. The Houston Texans of 2022 are reminding me of the Detroit Lions of 2021, not winning games, but staying in games and covering. A good covering team in a divisional matchup means slow methodical game play for both teams. 48% of the bets and 74% of the money gives the under a large sharp edge, and it shows the public is on the over with a low confidence. Those are both great indicators of the under for us, so I like this play. I feel like I only take unders on totals at this point, but I don't care. Under.
Play: Under 43.5, -110 (1u)
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets (+3.5), Total 45.5
Even without Tua, the Dolphins are far better than 3.5 points better than the Jets. Teddy Bridgewater showed on Thursday Night last week, that he can hang with a top team (the Bengals). As of right now, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are likley to play. I do not see any world where the Jets defense finds a way to contain both of these speedsters. The Jets are better than they have been in years past, but the Dolphins are contenders this year. I think the Dolphins can easily take advantage of this divisional matchup. 75% of the money is on the Dolphins, which puts them in the greater than 65% range that is 20-8 through Week 4. I am backing Teddy covers here, go fins!
Play: Dolphins -3.5, -110 (1u)
Additional plays with no write up:
Eagles - 6.5 ( continuously rolling with the hot Birds. Phillies just got into the NLDS, Philadelphia needs this)
Will tweet something out for the Sunday Night Game, I want to see where the percentages fall first.
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