NFL Week 4 Picks and Analysis | Sunday, October 1, 2022

We are back for Week 4 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.

Last week wasn't too bad for us at 2-2. I unluckily selected the under in the Titans game that was a bad beat and also the Vikings that were the only team to win, but not cover. It is what it is, but I am excited because it is pretty clear that these trends are showing us things. For example, I tweeted out the Bengals because of where the sharps were. The Bengals had 20+ percent sharps and to date (after the Bengals on Thursday night) when a team has greater than 15% sharps, they are 18-2! A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to explain some others here as well. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter!

As of today, the public is 21-26 in general. Other glaring trends are the public does not do great between the ranges of 60-70%, and when the money percentage is greater than 65% those teams are 17-6. Teams that follow the 18-2 trend I stated above are listed below:

Ravens, Commanders, 49ers, Patriots

Note that I am writing this around 11 pm on Saturday night, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. In previous years the sharp percentage came back to be close to 50/50.

The Plays

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5), Total 47.5

The Lions are hot off a tough loss to their division rival Vikings. They were winning most of the game and played very well. Similar to last year, the Lions are playing well, but not winning their games. I think the Lions are great this year, and as I said in my NFC North preview, they will surprise some people. This game against the Seahawks should be a gimme, I know they don't have Amon Ra, and DeAndre Swift is likely inactive, but they are better than the Seahawks. Even though the line has changed from -6 to -3, I think this should still be around -6. As of right now, the public is not sure where to go on this game, but the consensus is slightly in favor of the Seahawks. That bodes well for this Lions squad at home, since teams with low public/money/sharp confidence (the Seahawks) this year are only covering around 40% of the time. I expect Dan Campbell and the boys to find a way to get it done on Sunday, give me the Lions. I also love the over here, two not great defenses and teams that will want to move the ball. Expect points.

Play: Lions -3.5, -110, (1u)

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3), Total: 41

The Cowboys are coming off a short week against the division rival Giants. We are all about trends here at Happy Hour Sports and boy do we have some good ones in this game. First off, teams coming off of a short week against the Giants or Jets in New York are 5-24 ATS. The Cowboys fall into that category this week. Additionally, the Commanders currently are one of the 4 teams that have a greater than 15% sharp differential, a trend that has proved to be 18-2 (!!!) through Week 3 this year. Like I have said on the pod, I refuse to go against this trend until it proves me wrong. I think this is a prime let down spot for the Cowboys at home. If the Commanders find a way to somehow manage the Cowboy pass rush, they will be able to take over in this game. I would have loved to get in here when the line was +6, but that is the price we pay to see where people put their money. Lastly, something I did not mention on the pod, is teams with a greater than 65% public betting percentage (in this case the Cowboys at 74%) are 4-9 through Week 3. HTTC here, let's hope they surprise some people.

Play: Commanders +3 -110, (1u)

Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers (-1), Total: 43.5

The spread in this game feels very weird to me. The Panthers have been way worse than I thought this season, and the Cardinals have played decently against tough competition. So, I would have given the edge to Kyler and Arizona, which is actually how the game started out. However, as of the time I am writing this, the Panthers are favored. The line I am more interested in is the total. The Cardinals are averaging just shy of 19 points a game and the Panthers have have averaged about 21. That does leave us slightly short of the over, but both of these defenses rank in the 10 worst of the league. McCaffrey was just announced as "likely" to play, and the Cardinals are desperate for a win. I either expect a shootout or a Cardinals blowout in this game. Last thing I want to say is the public trends for this game's total are pretty much even across the board. So, I also love the fact that most games have gone under, the public is on the under, and in those confidence ranges there are no trends that favor one side or the over. I have been bad at unders this year so let's hope we can turn the totals around here.

Play: Over 43.5 -110 (1u)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5), Total 45.5

This is such a great game to end our Week 4 Sunday on. The rematch of Super Bowl LV brings us two great quarterbacks with very different styles. As of right now, Tom Brady does not look like himself. He obviously had a weird offseason and the Bucs are not really playing to their potential. Thankfully, the Chiefs are not either. I have a very hard time betting against primetime Brady. This is one of his final chances to leave an even bigger mark on the NFL on Sunday Night. He also plays with the best defense in football. This will be a very slow paced game as neither elite Quarterback will want to give the ball to the other team, so I love the under for that reason too. Sharps are also hammering the under as of right now, and the sharps are killing it this season as we discussed on the podcast, so I will be following them here. As for the spread, like I said above, I am backing Brady. The Chiefs have 67% of the bets right now, a trend where teams are 0-6 to date this year as well as a low sharp differential which we also know then favors the Bucs. As I said in my NFL Preview article, I don't like Brady, but he is the GOAT and will find a way to win this game Sunday.

Play: Bucs ML -116 (1u) and Under 45.5, -110 (1u)

Additional plays with no write up:

Eagles - 6.5 ( I am attending the game, and Go Birds)

Vikings -3 (Prime time Kirk won't show up, Road favorites in London are historically good)

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