• Deej

NFL Week 3 Picks and Analysis | Sunday, September 25, 2022

We are back for Week 3 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.

Last week wasn't too bad for us at 3-3. I unluckily selected two unders that ultimately went over, but we were dead on with the Jets and Packers! After week 2 we have seen some clear trends form from the public betting data. For example, confident sharps are 11-0 (!!!!), that is the power of this data and I am so excited to share it with you guys. A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to explain some others here as well. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on the trends. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter!

As of today, the public is 13-18 in general. Other glaring trends are the public does not do great between the ranges of 60-70%, and when the money percentage is between 65% and 70% that is 7-1. Teams that follow the 11-0 trend I stated above are listed below:

Patriots, Vikings, Panthers, Texans, Commanders, Titans, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals

Note that I am writing this around 11 pm on Saturday night, so as bets come in these percentages may change. Although, they should remain close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. In previous years the sharp percentage came back to be close to 50/50.

The Plays

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (+5.5), Total 52

The Vikings are coming off a rough loss in Philadelphia this past Monday. Justin Jefferson was pretty well locked up and the Vikings defense could not handle Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense. However, the Lions defense is not the Eagles and Jared Goff is not nearly as mobile as Jalen Hurts. I think this is a great bounce back spot for the Minnesota Vikings against one of their division rivals. The sharp differential for this game currently sits at 15%, which is the threshold of the range that is currently 11-0 through the season. The Lions also have 60% of the betting percentage, which is also on the threshold of a bad trend for the public. I think the Lions are great this year, and as I said in my NFC North preview, they will surprise some people. However, that is not happening this Sunday, give me the Vikings.

Play: Vikings -5.5, -115 (1u)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts (+5.5), Total: 51

The Chiefs have been very good and the Colts have been very bad. The public is betting accordingly as well: the Chiefs have 73% of the bets and 60% of the money. That gives the Colts a 13% sharp percentage. While that isn't quite in the 11-0 range, I for some reason love the Colts. As Andy mentioned on the podcast, the Colts are 14-4 in their last 18 against the Chiefs. They are at home, and desperately need a win. I, for some reason, really believe in the Colts in this spot. I am not sure they get the win, but a large dog at home is always a good play in my opinion. Give me the Colts.

Play: Colts +5.5 -110, (1u)

Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans (+1.5), Total: 45.5

A matchup between two 0-2 teams is upon us in Nashville, TN. The Titans were absolutely crushed by the Bills on Monday Night Football, and the Raiders lost in an epic comeback from the Arizona Cardinals. I expect the Raiders to come out of this game with a win, to this point they have shown they are a better team. However, the play in this game that excites me is the Under. Neither team has scored more than 25 points yet, and they are both desperate for a win. I expect a smart game from both sides and that will lead to a slow pace. A lot of games this year have gone under, and the public has been good at predicting it. Sharp differentials on the under are currently 13-5, and the differential right now is at 25%. I like this game to go under, and the people with the money do as well.

Play: Under 45.5 -110 (1u)

*I currently do not love anything from the 4 o clock slate, but may tweet something out depending how things change with where the public puts their money*

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos (+1.5), Total 44

A semi-historic rivalry shines on Sunday night as Jimmy G and the niners travel to Mile High. I say semi-historic because Russ used to be in the same division as the 49ers and played them twice a year for many, many years. While Russ is with a different team, his record against San Fran is 16-4. The 49ers currently have 77% of the bets and 81% of the money, two very high values that result in a low sharp differential. To date, low confidence sharps have not boded well. I understand why everyone is high on the niners here, but I love primetime Russ against a familiar rival. We just have to hope Nathaniel Hackett does not somehow mess this one up for us. Here's to Russ.

Play: Broncos +1.5, -110 (1u)

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