• Deej

NFL Week 2 Picks and Analysis | Sunday, September 18, 2022

We are back for Week 2 of the NFL. Every week i hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.

Last week we lost on some fairly bad beats. Giants and Bears comebacks were not great. Ended up going 1-3 (-2.3u), so looking for a turnaround here. I tweeted out the Under in the Chiefs and Chargers game, which was trending toward the under after sharps hammered the under before kick. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks.

Sports betting is not easy. It is pretty cut and dry. There are numerous references and stats out there that can help any bettor try to get an edge over Vegas, but Vegas still manages to win most of the time. So, it is important to constantly look to change the status quo and find new ways to get one step in front of Vegas. I have followed many cappers picks or just general trends like fading the public or going with my gut, but nothing ever seemed to work as well as I would have hoped. So, I thought about how I could find an edge over Vegas, or just find a new way to look at spreads and odds.

About 3 years ago I started developing my spreadsheet that would update things automatically for me, and to this day I have years of data that should aid my future bets. I really like to take a historical approach to sports betting and finding interesting trends, and that is just what I did.

The Method

Essentially, any novice bettor knows that the public typically does not win. However, sometimes they do, and it can be hard to really be certain on which games they will pick correctly and which they won't. So, my new strategy (which is something I've never seen anyone else do) takes into account how confident the public is. For example, in Todays Falcons vs. Rams game, 58% of bets are on the Falcons. The question becomes, over time how well has the public done when they are moderately confident (55%-60%)? The answer is, I have that data because I have compiled it over the years after games.

It is very fun for me to find ways to beat Vegas like this, and I am very excited to finally start bringing my NFL bets to you guys. Make sure to Subscribe so you never miss a post! It is also important to mention that the strategy does not strictly involve taking plays based on the compiled public data I have, I will also be combining this with leans and plays I like because at the end of the day no strategy is perfect. We are all out here just trying to find a way to consistently bet better than 55%. Again, we discuss this in much more detail on our new podcast on all podcast platforms! Sharpen the Public will become one of your weekly pods.

The Plays

My goal every week is to have at least 4 plays I love, if not more. I will try to shoot for 2 1 o'clock games, 1 4 o'clock game and the night game, but that may change. We have an incredible Week 2 slate in the 2022 season.

For today here are my plays and analysis:

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions (-1), Total 48.5

This game opened with a total of 44.5 and steamed up to 48.5. A lot of the public and money are on the Lions and if I was betting the spread, I would want that too. The lions looked great against the Eagles aside from the loss. The defense clearly has some holes, but DeAndre Swift showed us he is a top back doing what he did against a stout defensive line. The Commanders on the other hand had to pull a win from some late heroics by their great receiving corps. The public is very very confident on the over today with both the money and bet percentages soaring above 75%. Last week when the public bet the over the overs went 4-7 and the sharp money on the over showed a similar trend. I expect both of these teams to fall back to where they should be and prove Vegas was right when the total opened. Give me the Under.

Play: Under 48.5 -110 (1.5u)

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns (-6.5), Total: 38.5

As of right now, historic trends tell us that the Public does not perform well each week when they bet between 60-70% on a certain team. Last week, teams that fell into that category went 0-4. As mentioned on our podcast, the win percentage is south of 40% over the last 4 years. As this is being written, the Browns have 64% of the bets. The Browns performed okay against a not so great Panthers last Sunday. They pulled out the late win, to say they are almost 7 points better than the Jets is a stretch in my opinion. Yes the Jets lost by a good margin, but they had great offensive and defensive stats against a much better team in the Ravens. I love the Jets to bounce back in this spot, especially with the public trends and some confident sharps looking at the Jets. I am buying this play to 7 points to cross the key number as well.

Play: Jets +7 -120, (1u)

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams (-10), Total: 46

A loss from the Super Bowl Champs in week 1 does not bode well for the Atlanta Falcons in week 2. The Rams are hungry and will look to get things right against a subpar Falcons squad. I really do not see how the Falcons will generate any offense against Ramsey and Donald. The Saints defense is not as strong as the Rams, and like I said earlier the Rams will come out hot. While I do like to Rams to lay the points here, I love the Under. Little offense from one side always bodes well for an under, and it’s not a low total. When the public bet the over last week the public went 4-7, and sharps are hammering the under today, which is another good sign. I expect a 30-10 type game, so I’m rolling with another under.

Play: Under 46 -110 (1u)

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (-10), Total 41.5

A classic NFC North rivalry ends the Sunday slate with the Bears traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. Earlier in the week this total opened at 44 and has since been dropped to 41.5. As of writing this the public is 71% on the Over, but a whopping 94% is on the Under. Stats like this lead me to stay away from the total because I think there are just a few large large bets on the Under. As for the spread, there are some other interesting trends I’m seeing. As it was discussed on the podcast, after the Packers were routed last year in Week 1 by the saints, they were able to dominate the Lions and cover an 11 point spread against a bad division rival. Fast forward to present day, and we’re in basically the exact same spot. The Vikings took care of the Packers and yet they are still a double digit favorite versus a division rival. I don’t believe in Justin Fields and the Bears after a monsoon win. I’m rolling with Rodgers in prime time looking to make a statement without Adams.

Play: Packers -10, -110 (1u)

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