We are back for Week 10 of the NFL. Every week I hope to teach you something different about public betting trends and data, and this week is no different. My name is DJ and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. This is Happy Hour Sports, and we are a small sports media brand. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years again for you. We just started releasing podcasts on this method and plan to do so every week, so please follow, share, and rate the podcast on Spotify! I can promise you, it's worth it and will help you win more bets.
We have been killing it on totals recently, and I am looking to continue that trend today. The article plays have been great, and we are getting feedback in every area that you are winning using the information I provide. That makes me so happy and gives me all the reason to keep grinding out the data. We started this week great with positive Thursday, so time to build that today! I am excited because we are effectively using these trends and profiting, there is not much better. Even if you are not taking my plays, I know you are learning to use the trends to your own advantage. Here is how you could have used the trends to find some winners last week:
Lions had 65% of the money (14-4 ATS b/w 65-69% money) and covered.
Lions had a 20% sharp differential (20-7 ATS) and covered (updated GEICO Trend).
Seahawks had 89% of the money (36-24 ATS >65% money) and covered.
Dolphins/Bears 43% sharp differential on over (16-8 over with greater than 20% sharps toward over) and game went over.
Rams/Bucs 47% sharp differential on under (56-32 when sharps are on the under)
Every week there is something to learn from and we are able to gather more data. It is really important to highlight how these are trends and indicate how games are likely to turn out based on how the public is betting. However, no trend is perfect and I want that to be clear. I use the trends after I have looked through the slate and picked where I believe games will end up. If the trends disagree with me I will stay away, but if they agree then it gives me more confidence. I think we are getting the hang of this as through week 9 people have been telling me the trends are working for them too. That makes me so excited and gives me exactly what I need to keep providing the information for everyone. Anyways, I know you guys are here to learn about the public betting trends so let's get into those! A lot of the trends are detailed more in our podcast, but I will try to focus on the important ones here. We release the pod every week, so please start tuning it to catch up on those if you are interested. Also, as a preface, I am still learning the best way to present this information, so if you think anything different please let me know in the comments or on Twitter! I am very active there and tweet out any changes to my plays since the public bet % and money % can change at any minute.
The public is 60-72 ATS to date. They bounced back from their best week to go about even at 5-6 last week. From previous weeks, its clear that the pubic cannot string together good weeks without a bad one between it. This to me gives signals that the public will likely be mediocre or bad, but take that with a grain of salt (not saying to blindly fade the public). As the weeks have gone on, the ranges for the public have neutralized to nearly even, but I highlighted on this weeks pod we should try to focus in on how the public/money/sharps are doing recently. Over the last 5 weeks, between the range of 50-54% (i.e. low confidence) the public is 4-10. Here are all the teams the public is on (as of 10 am EST), with bolded ones between that low confidence range:
Chiefs -9, Giants -4.5, Vikings +6.5, Bears -2.5, Steelers +1, Dolphins -3.5, Titans -2.5, Raiders -4, Cowboys -3.5, Rams -3, Niners -7.5, Commanders +11
The key money percentage trend include teams with greater than 65% of the money/handle being 36-24 (37 wins if you include the Panthers on Thursday Night) ATS and teams specifically in the range of 65-69% of the money being 14-4 ATS to date. It's a tight range to fit into, so it is important to consider this as close to gametime as possible. The only team that currently fits this trend is the Rams -3, and teams that fit the greater than 65% criteria are:
Vikings +6.5, Bears -2.5, Steelers +1, Browns +3.5, Raiders -4, Rams -3
The Under is king this year when it comes to totals. When the money percentage is on the under, those games are 49-30 towards the under, when the sharps are on the under, those games are 56-32 to the under, and when the public is on the over, those games are 55-30 to the under. I love seeing the public on the over and the money on the under, based on the above trends it is clearly doing well. Here are the sharps are on the under (bolded have public on over):
Texans/Giants, Vikings/Bills, Steelers/Saints, Broncos/Titans, Packers/Cowboys, Commanders/Eagles
We have been killing it on the few overs we pick thanks to tracking the sharp differential. The only positive over trend I have is that when the sharp differential is greater than 20% towards the over, those games are 16-8 to the over. Specifically, between the range of 20% and 30% overs are 9-1 (!!). Sadly as of right now, only one game has greater than 20% sharps toward the over: Lions/Bears
I should also highlight the public is 30-55 when on the over this year and 3-20 when they are on it more than 65%. This needs no explanation, fade the public's overs. Here are those games: Jags/Chiefs, Texans/Giants, Lions/Bears, Browns/Dolphins, Cowboys/Packers
Lastly, everyone's favorite trend throughout the year has been when the sharp differential is 15% or more. I have dubbed it the GEICO trend on the podcast and one day it will catch on or they will sponsor us. This trend was 19-2 through week 4, but through week 9 has moved to 33-21 ATS. So, clearly some regression. Looking deeper into that trend we can find that specifically between 20 and 30% sharp differentials, teams are 20-7 ATS (above 30% is 0-3 ATS). Something that is very profitable, and should be considered for everyone's bets. This is the updated GEICO trend. An important thing to note about it is that the sharp differential, no matter the value, is 67-65 ATS to date. So, anything below the Geico trend (15%) is 34-44 ATS. When placing your bets, please consider the sharp differential. As of right now, here are the teams that fit the Geico trend (bolded teams have between 20-30%): Jaguars +9.5, Texans +5, Steelers +1, Browns +3.5, Eagles -11
Note that I am writing this around 10 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Last thing I will say is that, these trends can turn. All trends are subject to regression. I will continue to say I am betting with these trends because I love tracking them and find them fascinating. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider subscribing (for free) to help us out!
The Plays Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans (-2.5), Total 39 I mean what really is there to say about this game. The Broncos may be everyone's least favorite team to watch in the NFL and the Titans rely heavily on the run game with Malik Willis behind center. The Broncos come into this game with the number 7 defense in the NFL, but 21st against the run. The Broncos also allow the least passing yards, while the Titans are 31st in the NFL in the air. This game will be on the ground for most of the afternoon. Public is on the under and the sharps are towards the under at a greater than 20% clip, which you know I love. Feed me more unders, we are killing it on them this year. Play: Under 39.5, -115 (1u) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs -8.5), Total: 50.5 This line is moving FAST in favor of Jacksonville. As Rick discussed on the podcast, he loves to bet on the Jags and I think he's convinced me this week. They play everyone so tough and Travis Etienne is growing into a problem for defenses. The reason I love the Jags though, is the coaching matchup. Doug Pederson vs. Andy Reid. Obviously, these guys have the Philly connection, but Pederson worked under Reid. I expect this game to be closer than the line makes it out to be and as this line keeps moving, I like my chances. Jaguars also have a 23% sharp differential which puts them in the 20-7 range, so let's go Jags. Play: Jaguars +8.5, -110 (1u) New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5), Total 39.5 The Saints do not look like the same team with Andy Dalton behind center and the Steelers are on the comeup coming off a bye AND getting TJ Watt. Steelers are also at home today. The Steelers have not looked great all season, but I have liked what I have seen from Kenny Pickett. Mike Tomlin as a home dog is something I love to bet. He is 14-7 ATS with that criteria. Steelers also fit the GEICO trend and have 85% of the money, which as I also discussed on the pod is good to see. This is a bit of a gut feeling play, but the sharps are here too, so let's go Steelers. Play: Steelers +1, -112 (1u) Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins (-3.5), Total 49.5 After two incredibly easy overs following the Miami Dolphins they have been given a very high total in today's NFL. Now, both of these teams can score points easily. However, the Browns are a run first offense. This total will be decided in the first half whether it will eventually go over or under, but I am leaning under here. Vegas can set this line as high as they want because they know people are going to look at the Dolphins last two games and say yep thats happening again. The Browns defense is not that of the Lions or Bears. 80% of the bets are on the over and 90% of the money is on the over. The public is 3-20 when the bet % for the over is 65% or greater and 0-6 above 75%, give me the under.
Play: Under 49.5, -115 (1u)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (+3.5), Total 44.5
Similarly to the Jags, this line is moving quickly in favor of the Packers. I have not had much success betting the Packers, but Rodgers has never been a larger home dog. I think this is going to be a low scoring matchup, slow and ugly. They may not win, but Rodgers desperately needs to show this home crowd that they are not in the bottom tier of the NFL following a division loss to the Lions. This is a late afternoon game so the public bet percentages are bound to change, but right now the Packers are sitting at a 13% sharp differential. I predict they will get to 15, but will monitor it up to kickoff. For now, I am rolling with them again.
Play: Packers +3.5, -105 (1u)
Two Team 4pm Teaser: Cardinals vs. Rams (-3.5) AND Colts vs. Raiders (-4.5)
This is a great sport to run with a Wong teaser in the 4 pm slate. Two games with very low totals (41 and 39) with teams that have something to prove. The Cardinals and Rams game will be a mess. Sharp differential shows low confidence on Rams and Raiders suggesting taking the other side. I don't like either team straight up, so adding in the teaser to improve value. Let's try to win our first one.
Play: 2 Team 6 pt Teaser, Cardinals +9.5 AND Colts +10.5 , - 110 (1u)
Additional play(s) with no write up:
Lions/Bears o48.5, only game with >20% sharps toward over - have to take it after doing so well recently on these
Bucs/Seahawks u44.5 - tweeted out
Something to come for Sunday Night
Will tweet something out for the Sunday Night Game, I want to see where the percentages fall first. Great slate today, let's get into it!
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