• Deej

NFL Week 1 Picks and Analysis | Sunday, September 11, 2022

Today is the day! The first NFL Sunday after another grueling offseason is finally here, and I could not be more excited. My name is Deej and I want to thank you for coming to check out my picks and analysis. I am showcasing my own strategy that I have been developing for the past few years for the first time, today.

Sports betting is not easy. It is pretty cut and dry. There are numerous references and stats out there that can help any bettor try to get an edge over Vegas, but Vegas still manages to win most of the time. So, it is important to constantly look to change the status quo and find new ways to get one step in front of Vegas. I have followed many cappers picks or just general trends like fading the public or going with my gut, but nothing ever seemed to work as well as I would have hoped. So, I thought about how I could find an edge over Vegas, or just find a new way to look at spreads and odds.

About 3 years ago I started developing my spreadsheet that would update things automatically for me, and to this day I have years of data that should aid my future bets. I really like to take a historical approach to sports betting and finding interesting trends, and that is just what I did.

The Method

Essentially, any novice bettor knows that the public typically does not win. However, sometimes they do, and it can be hard to really be certain on which games they will pick correctly and which they won't. So, my new strategy (which is something I've never seen anyone else do) takes into account how confident the public is. For example, in Todays Eagles vs. Lions game, 59% of bets are on the public. The question becomes, over time how well has the public done when they are moderately confident (55%-60%)? The answer is, I have that data because I have compiled it over the years after games. I have developed a betting strategy that takes this stuff into account, as well as even more stats, but I cannot give away too much information, as you may not come back if I give it all away.

It is very fun for me to find ways to beat Vegas like this, and I am very excited to finally start bringing my NFL bets to you guys. Make sure to Subscribe so you never miss a post! It is also important to mention that the strategy does not strictly involve taking plays based on the compiled public data I have, I will also be combining this with leans and plays I like because at the end of the day no strategy is perfect. We are all out here just trying to find a way to consistently bet better than 55%.

The Plays

My goal every week is to have at least 4 plays I love, if not more. I will try to shoot for 2 1 o'clock games, 1 4 o'clock game and the night game, but that may change. We have an incredible week 1 slate to kick-off the 2022 season. Great storyline games like the Browns and Panthers (Baker against his old team) as well as division rivalries like the Vikings and Green Bay.

For today here are my plays and analysis:

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Washington Commanders, Total: 42.5

A match between two bottom feeders of the league that I am sure people will only mainly be interested thanks to fantasy players. It is Carson Wentz' debut in Washington, so there will be some pressure there. If you can recall to the end of last season, Jacksonville was able to beat Carson and the Colts to keep them from the playoffs. I think Jacksonville has the edge in this game, but I love the under. I do not see either of these teams putting up a lot of points as they begin the year trying to figure themselves out. There are also some good historical trends for the under in this spot.

Under 42.5 (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears, Total: 38.5

An interesting opener for the 49ers as they head to the Windy City and Soldier Field to face the mighty Bears. Justin Fields is still learning this offense and I expect the new coach Matt Eberflus has yet to find the Bears stride from just the offseason. I think this line is too short as the 49ers are much better offensively and defensively than the bears. Trey Lance should be able to run around this defense and the Bears do not have anyone to stop Deebo. Give me the niners -6.5.

49ers -6.5 (1 Unit)

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-5.5), Total: 44

The Titans lost AJ Brown this offseason, and the Giants improved their offensive line, but all of the data I have points me towards the Titans today. I am really low on the Giants this year, per my NFC East article, and I do not expect them to go into Nashville and give any problems to Tennessee. The offense has certainly changed a bit for the Titans, but Derrick Henry is all that matters. The defensive front of the Giants will have little fun trying to take down Henry. Give me the Titans -5.5.

Titans -5.5 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys, Total: 50.5

Sunday Night Football starts off with a banger this year as we see America's Team take on Tom Brady and the new look Buccaneers. Tom has had a very interesting offseason with all of the moving news and what not, but he is still Tom Brady. Tom Brady in Primetime nonetheless. I think that alone gives the Bucs the edge, but with their solid defense and the loss of offensive weapson for Dak, I think they easily take this one. 2.5 points is another small line in my opinion.

Bucs -2.5 (1 Unit)

As an additional play that I will not add to my record, because I do not like the public stats on the play, but will play personally, I am taking the Panthers -1 today against the Browns. I cannot understand why the line is this small and I am pretty high on the Panthers this year.

In the future I plan to release these articles on Sunday Morning rather than right before the games, so be sure to subscribe so you are notified and never miss a pick! I

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