• Andy

NBA Best Bets Wednesday 11/16

I changed things up a bit yesterday and went with three plays on one game with the Knicks and Jazz. Our Knicks moneyline hit for some nice plus money, but the over barely missed due to some poor second-half shooting from the Knicks, and Julius Randle going AWOL on us from the mid-third quarter and on. We are looking at a 3-3 record so far this week for +0.83 Units, and I've got a couple of plays today to help us build on that. Let's get started!


USA Today Sports

Thunder / Wizards under 229.5 (-110) - 1 Unit


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on fire this season, and the Thunder have followed suit averaging an insane 133 points per game over their last three games. Oklahoma City is setting a blistering pace, and their league leading 107.9 possessions per game shows that as well. They now come into a much more slow and steady side in Washington who are in the bottom 20% of possessions per game at 101.4 and second to last in points per game at 108.1.


One of the reasons that Shai has been so good is due to how crafty he has been driving to the basket. His drives have started to draw defenders his way, allowing for his teammates to open up for a creative pass from the future superstar. Guys, I think this Wizards team sucks, but they are great at defending points in the paint, only allowing 45.4 this season which is 5th best in the league. The Wizards are also in the top 10 in opponent points per game, and have averaged a 1.005 defensive efficiency over their last 3 games which puts them in the top 3 in the NBA.


I don't think that Shai and the Thunder are necessarily going to entirely cool off and not be good anymore, but I do think this is a heat-check game for an offensive streak that looks a bit too good to be true. The Wizards are not going to go basket for basket with this Oklahoma City offense that when Shai isn't facilitating the Aussie prodigy Josh Giddey is. The Wizards are also not going to just keel over and let the Thunder set the high pace they want, and they should be able to slow things down and play good defense to keep this game below 229.5.


I feel great about the under here knowing the Wizards won't be able to hit their number offensively and can contain the Thunder enough to keep this number lower. The public is currently slamming the over which is driving up the number a bit, so if you can get a better number than 229.5 then cheers to you! If you haven't caught the Shai Show yet this season, definitely tune in tonight!



Rockets / Mavericks under 220.5 (-110) - 1 Unit

The Houston Rockets travel to Dallas tonight to take on Luka Doncic and the Mavericks in a battle of two of three Texas franchises. Be on the lookout to make sure Luka and Dinwiddie are active tonight as the Mavericks are on a back-to-back after a low-scoring win over the Clippers last night. I expect tonight to also be low-scoring, as the Mavericks have been playing the solid defense we knew them for last season.


There are a couple of key indicators I look for that make me believe that this game should be low-scoring. One of the first ones is that the Dallas Mavericks are dead last in possessions per game at 99.5, and should dictate a slow pace against Houston whose young guards are constantly eager to shoot. Speaking of Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green shooting too much (c'mon guys, pass it to Jabari some!), the Rockets average 34.6% of their points from 3-pointers, putting them in the top 10 of the NBA. Dallas should be able to keep this locked down, as they allow opponents 28.8% of their points from 3-pointers this season which is 4th best in the league.


The Rockets and Mavericks are not really teams that have hit a lot of unders this season, going 8-6 and 8-5 on overs respectively which are both top 10 in the league. However, the Mavericks are only averaging 110.5 points per game and the Rockets are only averaging 109.6 which are both bottom 10, with these numbers looking even lower in their last three games at 103 and 107 respectively. The Mavericks are also 4th best in points per game allowed at home this season, only allowing 104.9 points per game.


If Luka or Dinwiddie sits I like the under even more, but for now, let's ride with the mismatch in Houston's offense against the Mavs' defense, and what have been some underwhelming offensive units through the first leg of the NBA season.

 

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