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NBA Best Bets Tuesday 11/15

After a successful Monday of going 2-1 for +1.4 units, I am excited to keep things rolling into a smaller Tuesday slate featuring five NBA games. Boston cashed their first half team total for a big win, and Jevon Carter barely delivered his point total while the Suns and Heat ended up going over instead of under.


Tonight I am doing something I haven't done before. I have done an extensive amount of research on the Knicks and Jazz game this evening at 9:00 PM EST, and have come up with three full-unit plays on the game. This one will be tough to watch for non-League Pass fans or people outside of New York City and Salt Lake City, but I promise there is some value to be had here. I'll be watching the boys on TNT at the same time as the rest of you too, don't worry. But hey, let's try something new and here goes nothin':


USA Today Sports


New York Knicks (+4.5) @ Utah Jazz - 9:00 PM EST



The New York Knicks take on the Utah Jazz who are one of the hottest topics in the NBA after a 10-3 start that has now faltered to 10-5 following a 2-game losing streak to end their three-game road trip. I'll cut right to the chase here. The Knicks are the #2 offense in points per game in the paint (56.5), going up against a Utah Jazz team that ranks dead last in the league in points per game in the paint (56.8).


Unfortunately for us, most books are not listing center player props for the Knicks, as I believe Isaiah Hartenstein will cook tonight, as well as Julius Randle who is averaging 20.8 points per game this season. This mismatch should prove to be deadly for the Jazz as they scramble to get things back on track, and the Knicks have had no trouble getting the ball inside.


One thing to note here that goes against the Knicks' but does help our play on the over is that the Knicks are facing a major mismatch here against Utah as the Jazz are the #4 three-point scoring team in the league. The Knicks are not going to be able to keep up if Utah's shots behind the arc continue to fall, as New York is allowing 36.1% of their opponent's points from threes this season which ranks them at #28 in the league.


The Jazz are averaging 116.9 points per game this season, and 123.2 points per game at home which helps the over a lot and ranks them #4 and #2 in those categories respectively. The Knicks are scoring 114.7 points per game which puts them in the top half of the NBA but are also allowing 116.8 points per game which puts them in the bottom 20%. 232 is a tall, tall number, but that has never steered me away from taking a big over, even as a notorious fan of taking unders.


Sharp money has come flying in on the over, with public bettors very much split 40/60 siding with the under. As it stands right now (6:50 PM EST) there is a +39% sharp edge on the over in the Knicks and Jazz game. The spread looks a bit different, with the public and the money sitting on the Jazz but a slight sharp edge on the Knicks. I am getting greedy here, and would rather ride with the moneyline rather than back the Knicks in a two-possession game.


If you are not as confident as I am in the Knicks to win, I hope my case for Julius and the over makes a lot of sense given the discrepancies these two teams face in points in the paint and defending the three. If the Knicks really get this thing going inside, and Julius knocks down some shots outside of the arc, paired with the Jazz taking advantage of the Knicks' poor perimeter defense, we could be looking at a recipe for success.

The Plays:


New York Knicks Moneyline (+168) - 1 Unit


Julius Randle o20.5 Points (-115) - 1 Unit


Over 231.5 Points (-110) - 1 Unit


 

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