• Andy

NBA Best Bets Tuesday 10/18

Updated: Oct 17

The NBA Season is BACK after what felt like an incredibly fast offseason. I have a boatload of NBA Futures and Season Props if you are reading this before the game's tip-off, which you can check out here. There are two games on the slate to get the season going. The Sixers are traveling to Boston to face off against the Eastern Conference Champion Celtics. Out West, the Lakers are heading to the NBA Champion Golden State Warriors' home court to watch them receive their championship rings. Let's get the season started out right with a couple of plays!

USA Today

Draymond Green under 21.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-114) - 1 Unit

Draymond has been all over the headlines the last couple of weeks and it is not for anything that he said on his infamous podcast or in an interview. Green's UFC-level punch should have Bellator or the LFA calling him if his media career ever fizzles, but I think you can deliver an equal-strength punch to your bookmaker by wagering on this line here as it is a tad too high.


Steve Kerr came out on Monday and said that the Warriors starters are not ready to play more than 30 minutes on Tuesday due to not having proper conditioning yet. Draymond is not someone who normally does play a ton of games over 30 minutes, averaging 28.9 last season, which means he could be in for an even lower minute-count Tuesday night. On top of this, Draymond's role at the start of the season has come into question after his altercation with Poole. We know what Green's role with the Warriors will be throughout the season and into the 2023 Playoffs, but it may be a rocky start as they hash out this dispute and continue to get the starters conditioned properly.


Green played the Lakers twice last season, and both times fell under this 21.5 total in points, rebounds, and assists. Draymond averaged 7/7/7 (Lucky!) last season, making this bet one you may have to sweat out til the end. However, we will be more relaxed than those taking the over, as it is always a spectacle watching Draymond rebound and pass like crazy with a lack of scoring. And hey, maybe we will get lucky and see a fight with Green and Patrick Beverly that secures the under earlier than expected. If you use multiple books, shop around for this line to see if you can find a better total or juice over the next 24 hours til tip!


Lakers / Warriors over 225.5 (-110) - 0.5 Units

I liked this line a lot more before the news broke about Kerr resting the starters a bit more than expected, however it is still worthy of a half-unit play based on a couple of things. We may not get a full 30 out of Steph, Klay, Wiggins, and Draymond, but guys like Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman, and Donte DiVincenzo will get their chance to shine off the bench and should supply a scoring boost with extra minutes.


The Lakers on the other hand are actually healthy all the way through the roster. Many are shaming Russell Westbrook for being pushed to the bench unit, but I actually think this may be a solid bump for a Lakers team that has had absolutely nothing going for them from their second team. Westbrook got made fun of for his poor shot creation last season but should have ample opportunity in his time off the bench to elevate the second-team players similar to how he did in Washington. Even though the Westbrook-led offense will only be for short spurts throughout the game, I like the Lakers' offense as a whole to look a lot sharper as the game goes along.


Finally, last season the Lakers and Warriors played each other four times. All four times these teams played the total surpassed this number of 225.5. Both franchises had offenses in the top half of PPG in 2021-22, and have not gotten worse on the scoring side of the ball despite the Lakers' additions to the team being absolutely laughable. I will go with just a half a unit here as we watch these first couple of weeks in the NBA pan out and begin to learn more about these teams in the new season.

USA Today


PARLAY (-115) - 1.5 Units

- Joel Embiid Double-Double (-300)

- Golden State Warriors ML (-250)

I wanted to go ahead and put this one out on Twitter before I gave out my write-up. I will have plenty more plays that I only have the chance to tweet out without an article, so please feel free to throw me a follow @AndyHHSports so you never miss out on any plays this season!


Joel Embiid and the Sixers should be able to take advantage of Boston on the interior with the absence of Robert Williams from the Celtics' lineup for the next couple of months. I am interested to see if the Celtics maintain the defensive ferocity they displayed from mid-January through the postseason at the start of 2022, but even if the defense delivers it should still be a nice day for Embiid. Joel averaged 24.5 PPG against Boston last season and 12.5 RPG, while achieving a double-double all four games except the final one where he only was able to get 9 rebounds. I am not worried about Embiid having his way in Boston to start the season, and delivering a statement win from a reloaded Philly roster.


The Warriors may let the emotions fly to start Tuesday night when they receive their championship rings, but it is all business the rest of the way. LeBron, AD, and company can try to play spoiler all they want, but this Lakers team is not fit to keep up with the 2022 NBA Champions from a depth standpoint and much less talent standpoint. I challenge any reader to try to tell me the fourth-best player on this Lakers roster without looking up who is on the team, and if you are a Westbrook-hater, then give me the third-best player on the roster. Tweet at me or drop a comment below on who you've got because I'd love to talk about it! I think the offense can keep up as I detailed in my play on the over, but for how long and to what extent will Darvin Ham's team be able to handle the depth and flurry of scoring that we know the Warriors for? Let's pair two results we have seen time and time again on Tuesday night, and take our unit-and-a-half payday to the bank!

 

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