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NBA Best Bets Monday 11/14

There are seven games on the NBA slate today with most starting at 7 or 8 PM EST. Over the last two weeks, I have had a very steady record of 17-17-0 in the NBA, but ultimately have a profit to show for it of +1.675 Units. Our big plays and + money plays have been cashing in, as well as player props which have gone 20-15 for +2.87u so far this NBA season. There are some plays I end up quickly tweeting out without a writeup in order for my followers to snag value quickly. You can check those out at @AndyHHSports on Twitter. With that little recap out of the way, here are my plays for Monday:

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Boston Celtics 1H TT over 61.5 (-105) - 1.5 Units

There is a lot to love about Boston's first-half scoring trends this season. The Celtics are the number 2 ranked scoring offense in the league through almost four weeks and are going up against an Oklahoma City team that is in the bottom 25% of the NBA in opponent's points per game allowed in the first half. The Thunder are no strangers to shootouts either, allowing 61.3 points per game in the first half of their last three games while scoring 68 points per game in their last three themselves.

On Friday night I took the Celtics 1Q and 1H to go over against the Denver Nuggets, and the Nuggets did not hold up their end of the bargain in the first quarter but the plays ended up splitting 1-1 after the first half cashed. Going with just the Celtics here instead of the game's first half allows us to still take advantage of Oklahoma City pushing the pace and the Thunder coming off of a back-to-back. The Thunder have a defensive efficiency of 1.077 which is the middle of the road, but their possessions per game leads the NBA at 107.3 which is what is most important here and does not worry me as much about their defensive efficiency rating.

Let's go back to the Celtics here with another big play, and hope they continue their strong form in the first half of games as we have seen under new head coach Joe Mazzulla.

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Phoenix Suns / Miami Heat under 215 (-110) - 1 Unit

The Phoenix Suns travel to Miami tonight in what looks to be a fun but slow and methodical battle of the one seeds from the 2022 NBA Playoffs. The Suns are still waiting on news about Chris Paul's availability tonight, while the Heat are still listing Tyler Herro as questionable. There are a couple of reasons I favor the under here besides the injury report.

The Suns rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency at 1.045, while the Heat are still in the top half of defensive efficiency despite a rough start to the season. Both of these teams rank in the bottom third of possessions per game, with Phoenix ranking at #27 at 101 possessions per game, and Miami at #22 with 102 per game. Miami are middle of the pack in points per game at 110.5 but have not faced a defense yet like Phoenix with only easy opponents and bottom defensive teams on their resume to show for their 6-7 start to the campaign.

I like the Suns to give the Heat some fits tonight in Miami, but do not necessarily want to pick a side here with the Chris Paul news still yet to be announced. Sharp money has come in on the Heat -2 early, so it will be interesting to see where the sides are once the injury report is finalized closer to game time. For now, let's back a slow and defensive game from last season's best in the East and West.

Jevon Carter over 10.5 Points (-115) - 1 Unit

Carter will once again be filling in for Jrue Holiday tonight as the Bucks host the Atlanta Hawks in Milwaukee. Carter may not be the most stylish bet you can place in this matchup, but he has been quite the lucrative one. Over the last two games, Carter has scored 36 and 21 points against the Thunder and Spurs on the road respectively.

The Spurs and Thunder leave much to be desired compared to the defensive unit that Atlanta has to offer. The Hawks defense has seen a massive uptick in their defensive rating from 1.112 in 2021 to 1.070 in 2022 due to the addition of Dejounte Murray, which puts them in 7th place. Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency at 1.009 for those of you eyeing the under here as well.

The defense of Atlanta does not worry me too much though with Jrue Holiday listed out along with Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton all on the injury report too. Somebody has to score the points for Milwaukee, and Carter has proven he is not afraid of the opportunity. With Carter soaring over this number twice already, let's see him do it again at home tonight.


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