• Andy

NBA Best Bets Monday 10/24

After a successful weekend of going 6-2-0 on Saturday and Sunday for +3.88u on Twitter, I will look to keep things rolling with three props I tweeted out throughout the day today along with others. If you are missing out on the fun, make sure to follow me @AndyHHSports so you can change that! With that, I'll spare everyone my normal intro and jump right into the action:

H/T Dylan Buell for the photo.

Tyrese Haliburton o32.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-125) - 1.5 Units

-and-

Jalen Smith o19.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-113) - 1 Unit

Haliburton has started off his season in spectacular fashion. Many were very high on Tyrese in fantasy basketball due to his spectacular skillset of being able to facilitate the offense, and we saw his scoring numbers make a jump in Indy after the Sabonis blockbuster last spring too. On top of this, there are not many good players in Indy right now so Tyrese will continue to get his production alongside the new to semi-new faces of Mathurin and Jalen Smith. Those same reasons to be excited apply to the prop bet markets, as some of their totals continue to be too low based on their previous track records and first three games this season.


Tyrese is averaging 25.7 PPG, 9.7 APG, and 3.7 RPG so far in the 2022-23 campaign, which for those counting on their fingers at home, grossly surpasses the total we are betting on here. This is not the only reason I am betting more than a unit on this prop though. The Philadelphia 76ers have been very bad this season with an 0-3 start and not much defense to be found. I was looking at just taking Haliburton's over for points and assists until I noticed some problems going on in the rebounding department for the Sixers.


Philly is dead last in the league in rebounding at 38.3 per game, as well as offensive rebounds at just 7.3 a game. The Pacers have doubled the offensive rebounding number to 15.3 a game, and have outrebounded Philly by almost ten a game so far this season. For that reason, I have also added in Jalen Smith's over as he should be able to rack up rebounds even more than usual against such a lackluster rebounding team like Philly in only 20 minutes of playing time (he will get more than that, don't worry...).


You would think that a team led by Joel Embiid would be much stronger rebounding the ball, but it comes down to the fact that really only Joel and Harden are grabbing the rebounds. Harris has averaged just over 5 this season, and Tucker gets his 4 or so that you would expect, but that's it. I know this Pacers team is young and inexperienced, but I expect the young guns to have some fun tonight as they do not lack hustle and can expose a poor defense.


Getty Images

Paolo Banchero o18.5 Points (-125) - 1 Unit

If you haven't noticed yet, Paolo-Mania is in full effect a little less than one week into the NBA season. After pulling off a stat line only LeBron had matched in his rookie debut, Paolo has taken the league by storm and it seems the Magic have found some scoring that was much-needed last season. Racking up point totals of 27, 20, and 23 against Detroit, Atlanta, and Boston respectively, Banchero looks to be the part against scrappy young teams and loaded defensive units.


Now he makes his debut in Madison Square Garden. No, I am not going to give you an analysis that says "Bet on MSG Paolo!" However, I do believe his odds of performing well against the Knicks are pretty favorable. The Knicks have played the Grizzlies and Pistons so far this season, and both opponents saw great scoring output from their forwards. Adlama and Bane had 18 and 16 points a piece vs New York on Wednesday, while the Pistons' got 18 and 26-point games from Bogdanovic and Bey respectively.


Paolo will be featured much more than these guys, and while I do understand that the primary defenders will be watching out for Banchero, I just do not think it will matter. Paolo is averaging at least 18 shots a game in all three contests so far this season and has been averaging just under 9 attempts from the free throw line. Speaking of free throws, New York is dead last in the league committing 26 fouls a game (YIKES!), so let's hope the attention to Paolo sees him make up a bulk of those trips to the line. Give me the favorite for rookie of the year to continue his trend of scoring 20 or more, and if he gets 19... oh well!


Jalen Brunson o6.5 Assists (+120) - 0.75 Units

I may have gotten a bit ambitious with Brunson's assist props on Friday, thinking he would go 9 or above after his impressive outing the game before. However, if Brunson only played for 28 minutes due to blowing out the Pistons, and I do not believe that will happen tonight against the Magic.


Orlando had a top 5 defense to close out the final two months of last season, and it has shown this year so far. Orlando has lingered around in their first three games, only losing to the Pistons by 4, Hawks by 10, and Celtics by 6. Brunson will get his full run of running the offense tonight, and they will need his playmaking to navigate the savvy young guns of Orlando.


For similar reasons that I had on Friday, I will be backing Brunson once more. This line has continued to move up throughout the day, and a little plus money never scares me away. I think this will be a fun game to watch, and we still have a lot to learn about both the Magic and the Knicks just around a week into the season.


Thibs trusts Brunson with the keys to the offense, and we will see that on full display tonight. Let's watch some stellar passing and creation from the former-Mav, and see what the Knicks got from their big offseason signing!

 

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