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Early NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Week 6 treated us well just like Week 5 did, going 5-3 for a positive win of 1.8 units. The Early Bets card last week went 1-1 for -0.1 units, with my beloved teasers doing the same. I wanted to put out an additional NFL article for the first time in a while as I had a number of extra plays I conjured over the weekend, but I was unfortunately under the weather and just tweeted them out on my Twitter. Now I am feeling fully healthy, fully fired up for the NBA to return on Tuesday, and fired up for my Week 7 Early Bets after back-to-back winning weeks! Let's jump right in!

USA Today

6-Pt Teaser (-120) - 2 Units

- New York Giants +9

- Dallas Cowboys -1

Yes, we've got a big boy teaser. And I want it EARLY!


The Giants and Jaguars both looked to be the two surprise stories of the NFL after Week 3. Three weeks later, the Giants are the only ones that still fit this narrative, sitting 5-1 while the Jags are 2-4. Both of their straight-up records also match their records ATS, with the Giants having all 6 of their games decided by at least one score or less. The Jaguars have also seen their games decided by one score or less, besides their two blowout victories against the Colts and Chargers which feel very distant now.


Coach Daboll and the Giants have been able to mitigate the number of turnovers we are used to seeing from Daniel Jones and the Giants' offense. On top of that, Saquon has looked like his old self again wreaking havoc across the league. I do not think that it is out of the equation for the Jaguars to bounce back at some point this season, as the talent is definitely there but such a young roster is prone to make plenty of mistakes early on. I do not see Daboll and the boys letting the Jags win this game outright, so definitely watch the moneyline this week, but this line is definitely fishy given the form of both teams through six weeks. Give me the Giants with a full touchdown plus two-point conversion buffer.


The Lions are coming off of a bye week as they head into Dallas, while the Cowboys are coming off of what looked to be a blowout in Philly before they recovered and made it less embarrassing in the second half. The Lions still have a large number of players listed as questionable following the bye week, and as a result, I like snagging the Cowboys to win here in this leg of the teaser.


Dak Prescott is set to return for the Cowboys and will look to put the Cooper Rush hype train to bed if three picks against the Eagles were not enough. I believe that the hype from Hard Knocks and the Lions being one of the sneakiest ATS teams in 2021 may still be keeping belief in the Lions afloat, but people forget that Dallas was the #1 team ATS last season and sit tied for sixth ATS in 2022. The number one offense last season is still firing off this year, and Dak will look to restore his dominance in Jerry World against a very spotty Lions defense.

Getty Images

Green Bay Packers / Washington Commanders under 41 (-110) - 1 Unit

Maybe it's an overreaction, or maybe the Packers' offense is still figuring things out. This past weekend's loss to the Jets in Green Bay was ugly, and it definitely shows with how low the total is in their game versus the Commanders this coming Sunday. On top of my feelings towards this game's total, the sharps apparently agree as early money has slammed the under already.


The Commanders will be without Carson Wentz for the next month to month-and-a-half, which means we should get more Taylor Heinicke. The Washington offense has a bit more offensively to offer than last year, but it's not like Taylor was a world-beater or else they would not have gone out to get Carson who was run out of town quickly by the Colts. The Commanders averaged 19.7 PPG last season with Taylor leading the way, which is about what Green Bay are giving up to opponents this season at 20.5 PPG through 6 weeks.


What is concerning is the Packers rush defense. Green Bay is letting up 4.9 rushing yards per attempt this season, but only 3.9 per attempt on the road which is solid considering it was against Dalvin Cook (90 yards) and Leonard Fournette (35 yards). Washington averaged 28.1 rushing attempts per game in 2021, which is just over 4 attempts less than this season at 23.8. I believe they will turn toward the run game a bit more against the Packers with much less trust in Heinicke, but this could also play into our favor with the clock bound to run more often and for longer periods between plays. As long as Robinson, Gibson, and McKissic stay contained, I think the Packers D can keep things under control for the under.

 

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