Last week the Early Best Bets piece went 3-1 for +2.25 units. I was initially not as big of a fan of the Week 4 slate, but after some of the lines have begun to settle in I am ready to show everyone where I believe we can find some early edge on the book. I have one play I gave out very early during Sunday night on Twitter, but I have added a moneyline parlay (no, not a teaser...) and an additional play to round out a fun Week 4 betting card. Follow me @AndyHHSports on Twitter so you never miss out on an early play before the column comes out. And without further ado, let's jump right in!
S/O to Stacy Revere/Getty Images for the photo.
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers
Mac Jones goes down, Packers-Patriots line drops, and I immediately jump in on Packers. This Patriots team is in shambles, whether you like it or not. You can reference some of the same logic I used last week with my Ravens play over the Pats, so I'll save you the time rambling on how bad they are.
The Packers seem to be putting things together following the disastrous Week 1 loss to Minnesota. Romeo Doubs looked like the fantasy asset many people took a chance on a few weeks ago in their drafts, and Christian Watson should start taking form as another offensive threat soon with more reps and a healthy hamstring. Normally it is not the greatest advice to suggest taking such a large favorite when the total is so low, but I believe this is Vegas calling for a Packers blowout. New England's greatest concern is about to be if Brian Hoyer is a better quarterback than Mac Jones after Mac has looked miserable the past three weeks.
Expect a blowout here, and for the Patriots dynasty days to slowly but surely be put to the side for history book discussions only.
The Play: Packers -9.5 (-110) - 1 Unit
Moneyline Parlay (-103) - 1.5 Units
- Philadelphia Eagles -280
- Detroit Lions -220
I decided to take a different approach here, as I would love to include the Eagles in a teaser with a +1.5 to +3 range dog, but my teasers have been ice cold this season at 0-4. Maybe that is why I had a successful Week 3, as there were no teasers to be found, but that is beside the point. The Lions are in an affordable moneyline parlay spot and have a spread of -4.5 as things stand today, and I can dive into that more after I speak on Philly.
The Eagles look like one of the most dominant offensive teams in the NFL through the first three weeks. I was not completely sold on this Eagles team when the season began as they were getting a lot of hype from plenty of outlets, but I now see the light. Jalen Hurts has improved before our eyes from 2021 to 2022 and has an insane arsenal of weapons when he isn't breaking off for massive rushing gains. The Eagles defense has also been impressive the past two weeks after allowing 35 to the Lions in Week 1, who will be making up the second leg of this parlay.
However, what you can say about the Eagles on both sides of the ball can also be said about the Jaguars after their impressive and shocking run over the past two weeks. Shutting out Indy and blowing out the Chargers were two surprise results for a team that many did not expect to have the same firepower as Philly before the season. This game will be a heat check for both sides, but I believe that the Philadelphia offense will be too much for the Jaguars young stars on defense. The Jags defense ranks #1 in defensive rushing yards allowed, but take it with a grain of salt as they faced the Commanders, the Colts who refuse to go strictly with Jonathan Taylor like they did in 2021, and Chargers who were expected to run with how injured Justin Herbert is.
Finally, the Detroit Lions are back with another low line against an abysmal Seattle Seahawks side. The Seahawks have not looked good since the first half of the Broncos game where the gameplan seemingly worked for 30 minutes. Since then, things have not looked pretty and it was an easy fade for me to take last week as well backing the Falcons over the 12th Man. Now they are on the road against a scrappy Lions team that has kept things close in all three of their games.
The Lions kept a lot of games close last season and that trend has not changed this year. Even though they are 3-0 ATS this season, I want to air on the side of caution when backing Detroit as you know this team will bring the energy but close games are their thing. Give me Motor City Dan Campbell to right the ship and bring the Lions to 2-2, while his fellow second-year head coach Nick Sirianni brings the Jaguars back to reality in Philly.
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
The Denver Broncos, like the Seattle Seahawks, are a team I am beginning to look toward as a nice fade option. I have not been on the side of good fortune thus far with them, but their unders have been quite lucrative going 3-0 this season so far. Denver struggles to score points but faces a Las Vegas team that has allowed at least 24 points in all three games so far this season.
Vegas is a lot better than their 0-3 record says, and I wrote about my optism with them in my AFC West piece here. I still feel strongly that this team can make a turnaround, especially against a Denver team that has not been flattering for Nathaniel Hackett or Russell Wilson so far this year. I will most likely lean Raiders here for a personal play, but if I make it official you can find it @AndyHHSports on Twitter. The value I see here is in Denver's team total.
The total between these two teams has trends galore towards the under, but two that stick out specifically are that the under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams, and is 5-0 the last 5 times the game has been played on the Raiders home field. The Denver Broncos have only put up 16, 16, and 11 this season with a struggling offense. The Raiders have allowed 25.7 PPG this season, but I am not as worried about it with how inefficient the Broncos have been in the Red Zone.
On top of this, Denver is the second best in Points Allowed this season, only allowing Seattle 17, Houston 9, and San Francisco 10. These are not the best offenses in the world, and Las Vegas will offer plenty more to worry about, but I believe 45.5 is too many points in this one. Finally, I will note that the public has historically performed very well when taking unders, and you can hear more about that on @DeejHHSports podcast "Sharpen the Public" Episode 3, airing Friday, September 30th.
The Play: Denver / Las Vegas under 45.5 (-110) - 1 Unit
H/T to AP Photo/Rick Scuteri for the photo.
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