Week 2 provided us with surprises, entertainment, and some insane comebacks to cap off a spectacular start to the season. My Sunday slate ended 5-2 for +1.4 Units, with the Early Bets article from last week going 1-1. It is clear that going 0-4 on teasers this season I may need to take a chill pill, but be on the lookout for if I place another one (or two, or three...) for Week 3 by following me at @AndyHHSports on Twitter! With that out of the way, let's roll into my early wagers for Week 3, with a feature from the Thursday Night Football game!
S/O Browns Wire & USA Today for the picture!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
The purpose of this article is to find the exceptions each week where you may not want to wait until kickoff to place a wager and can snag some early value. Luckily, this is the Thursday Night Football game so there is not much to wait on.
There are an enormous amount of trends when there is a total this low, and we spoke about it some on Deej's "Sharpening the Public" episode 1 as well as the new episode which will be rolling out Friday. If you haven't tuned in, definitely check it out for some quality deep dives on how to learn about public betting tendencies and trends and how to interpret them. For the purpose of this game, the devil on my shoulder is telling me to take the under but I will stay away.
What I am looking at though is the Cleveland Browns. Yes, the same Browns that came into Charlotte and killed off Baker's revenge party, and the same Browns that choked to the New York Jets last week. This team has become the victim of early season overreactions, with the public and sharp money unloading on the Steelers at around a 75% clip.
Yes, they do not have Deshaun Watson and won't for another 9 weeks, but it doesn't matter. We don't need Jacoby to do much here. If we can get 10 points of offense from the Browns, the defense will do the rest as Trubisky has looked subpar against even worse defenses in Cincy and New England. These Browns players are absolute brutes and bullies, and I would bank on these guys to help build the legend of Kenny Pickett before Pittsburgh's hero even steps on the field.
Now back to the beginning of this play. DO NOT BET ON THIS GAME YET! Let's keep an eye on this Thursday Night line, and we can likely see it hit -4 unless the bookmakers in Vegas want to ride the Browns with us and take a side based on the money splits. Keep an eye out for updates from my Twitter, and I will make sure to tweet out what I end up taking!
The Play: Wait on the Browns line movement... - 1 Unit
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
I tried to jump in on this line as soon as I saw it. I know we preach in several different ways to stay away from where the public is betting, and here I am grabbing a side with 80% of the bets on it. My reasoning behind taking the Ravens is as simple as it gets though.
Lamar Jackson is going to overwhelm this defense. Sure, New England has looked good stopping the run three games in. But this squad that finished in the bottom quarter of rushing yards allowed last season will have their hands full against an offense that has had no trouble scoring to start the year.
On top of this, can anyone confidently believe in Mac Jones putting up points with this debilitated offense? The Ravens have allowed by far the most completions per game this season, but New England are only averaging 21 through two games. I am not buying that the Patriots are a good game, and this will be yet another prove it game for Lamar and company after the thrilling Miami Dolphins shootout last week.
I will take the Ravens here who are 4-0 following an ATS loss and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a straight-up loss. I am not totally bought in on using historical New England stats or trends here, and the Patriots were not strong against teams with a winning record last season. Don't read into this one too much, as many may jump to assumptions quickly.
The Play: Ravens -3 (-110) - 1 Unit
H/T to AP and Wilfredo Lee for the photo.
San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos
Is anyone out there still believing in Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett? You can say all the right things on the podium all day long with Seattle or Denver, and the product on the field still looks disappointing for Russ. If the game was played within both 20-yard lines, I would take Denver all day every day. Unfortunately for them, you usually have to convert in the red zone in order to score in the NFL, and after two duds in Seattle and against the Texans, I have doubts they can get that done against the much superior defense of San Fran.
Jimmy G came back with a vengeance against the Seahawks, and Geno Smith went from hero to zero in a matter of 6 days. The Niners were 8-4 ATS on the road last season, including their spectacular playoff run. I know that the Niners prepped for a Trey Lance offense this offseason, but I trust in Shanahan and Garroppolo to click once again against a Denver defense that showed great and poor at times with no in-between against Seattle and Houston.
Those flashes of excellence though are what really have me looking into the under as well. It looks like the public and sharps are slamming the under, but as our friend Deej has called out this is not a bad thing. The public is 11-3 backing the under this season and hit at around a 60% clip last season as well. The sharp money currently outweighs the public money too, which I would keep an eye out for. If that difference favors the sharps by 15% or greater, we are looking at an undefeated 11-0 trend that also will support two defenses I am OK with backing.
- Niners Moneyline (-125) - 1 Unit
- Niners / Broncos under 45 (-110) - 1.5 Units
H/T to the Athletic for the photo.
Stay tuned as we continue to put out more NFL content as the season goes along. We also will have plenty of college football reactions, best bets, and more following an exciting Week 2 with a few upsets! Finally, don't miss out on any of our basketball, baseball, or soccer to keep you entertained during the week! We appreciate your support, and thanks for reading.
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