Updated: 5 days ago
f/t Jamie Squire/Getty
We are in the thick of college hoops Feast Week and the Sunday slate is packed with some great matchups. Let's jump into a few games that I feel good about!
Houston at Oregon, 9:30pm ET
The Cougars visit Eugene in stellar form to play the Ducks and are looking for another Q1 win to add to their resume. Houston is a well oiled machine covering in each of their first 4 games while Oregon has stumbled a bit, losing to UC Irvine and are dealing with a plethora of injury problems.
The Oregon backcourt is in for a battle for all 40 minutes and I'm not sure they're up for it. They need to be shooters (which they are not) and the frontcourt will be faced with the best team defense around the rim in the nation according to ShotQuality. On the other end, Houston's offense is due to positively regress still and they rank 9th and 2nd in the nation there according to KenPom and ShotQuality. The 3 point % also should tick up from guys like All American Marcus Sasser, who has shot poorly (27%) on the year.
This one is simple- Houston is the better team, especially right now with Oregon's backcourt issues currently. Historically, Kelvin Sampson's Houston teams have played well on the road in scenarios such as these and this should be no different. Houston 1H -3.5 and Houston -6.5 full game are plays for me.
Virginia Tech at Charleston 3:30pm ET
Both clubs in the Charleston Classic tournament final are rolling through this tournament and season so far. The Hokies offense is absolutely humming early on ranking in the top 10-20 in efficiency according to many different metrics. Where the problem may lie is the sustainability of that offense. They are 17th in the nation in shot making but 105th in shot selection according to ShotQuality. That will eventually even out but I'm not sure today is that day. Charleston's Jaylon Scott is a monster defender to stick on the best opposing guard which could effect some of VT's offensive sets but there are certainly some mismatches for the Hokies on that end. They should thrive beyond the arc and around the rim. Both are still due for a bit of positive regression and they rank 3rd in catch and shoot 3s vs a defense that ranks just 181st. That and shots around the rim account for nearly 66% of their possessions. Around the rim they rank in the top 60 in the nation and face a Charleston defense that is 185th.
On the other end, there are not a lot of meaningful matchups for either side. Charleston's offense has also been top notch so far this season but are facing a defense ShotQuality is very high on, ranking them 13th.
All this to say- this line feels a bit low at Hokies -5.5. Bettors have been smartly steaming Charleston so far this season but I will fade the Cougars here and take VT -5.5.