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College Basketball Best Bets 11/17

*Will update throughout the day with more picks

Colorado State vs South Carolina, Charleston 5:00pm ET

Day basketball is upon us with several different tournaments tipping off in the Palmetto State starting this morning. The Rams and Gamecocks face off in the third game of the day in the Charleston Classic. Both clubs come into this one undefeated but with middling results. Colorado State is still missing their best player in Isaiah Stevens which has caused problems for them so far. On the other side, the Gamecocks have won close ones against the worst in their home state (South Carolina State) and arguably the best in Clemson.

The Rams have certainly struggled early on in the year without their best player, nearly losing to Gardner Webb and Southeastern Louisiana at home but have steadied the ship a bit. Nico Medved's system allows for a pretty fluid offense no matter who is on the floor which should certainly help as time goes on without Stevens. It is early in the season but the regression to the mean for both teams favors the Rams quite a bit according to ShotQuality. Colorado State should absolutely thrive around the rim in this one even if the regression does not happen today. They rank in the top 25% in PPP (Points per possession) down low and should only get better in that aspect while South Carolina is in the bottom 200 defending around the rim and expected to get worse there. The half court offensive metrics for the Rams is another mismatch that should be exposed along with their priviness from behind the arc. Where the Gamecocks could have an advantage is on the offensive glass. South Carolina is nearly top 10 in OREB% rate (according to KenPom) but Colorado State is top 50 combating offensive rebounds so far on the season. If Colorado State can stymie them on the glass, the Rams should win this one going away. Colorado State +1 or Pk feels a bit low for me. I'll take the Rams up to -1.

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