• Rick

CFB Week 12 Best Bets

Texas Longhorns @ Kansas Jayhawks (3:30 ET)

Favorite: Texas -9

Total: 63.5

A pair of middle of the road Big 12 teams face off with relatively little to play for. Kansas’ hope to make the Championship game is nearly over, while Texas has a chance but are tied with a number of teams and will lose on tiebreakers more than likely. Still, with both teams at 6-4, they’re playing for the status of being ranked come year’s end and facing a high quality opponent in a bowl game. For Kansas, this would be an accomplishment to revel over for years to come, while for Texas it’s a necessary step. Texas will have all the pressure on their shoulders traveling to Kansas, while the Jayhawks are expected to lose yet have the rare opportunity to play spoiler to the Longhorns.

Kansas’ defense might be horrendous as usual, allowing the 9th most points out of 10 Big 12 teams, but their offense is second only to CFP contenders TCU. Whether Jason Bean or Jalen Daniels gets the start for Kansas they’ll be in good hands as the quarterbacks have combined for 25 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions this season. The running game has been exceptional as well (209.6 ypg), an area they’ll be looking to get going as well against a decent rush defense in Texas (127.1 ypg). Where Texas has struggled all year is in the secondary though, and given Kansas’ big play potential they should be able to put up points.

Texas might’ve only scored 10 points against TCU, but their offense is still a force behind Bijan Robinson and Quinn Ewers. With how bad the Kansas defense is they’ll easily put up more than 30 points and the Kansas offense will have to keep pace. I think we’ll be in for a shootout with Kansas scoring at least 4 touchdowns over the course of 4 quarters. Give me Kansas’ team total over 27.5, as the most likely game script is Kansas keeping pace with Texas.

Pick: Kansas TT o27.5 -110 (1u)

Washington Post

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Maryland Terrapins (3:30 ET)

Favorite: Ohio State -27.5

Total: 63.5

Ohio State travels to Maryland to face an offense that while potent, has only scored 10 points over their last two games against Wisconsin and Penn State. Ohio State’s offense has been unbelievable even with injuries, scoring 44 or more points in four of their last five games. The only game they didn’t was somehow against Northwestern, scoring just 21 but allowing a season low seven points. Ohio State’s defense has been solid this year, grading out to be the third best in the Big 10, but they’ve been susceptible to allowing some points to cover spreads and overs.

That will be the case come Saturday.

Maryland should be fully healthy offensively for this game and will lean on Taulia Tagovailoa to lead the offense that’s anchored by running back Roman Hemby, averaging over one hundred all-purpose yards per game. Expect Maryland to surpass their team total, set at 18.5, and for Ohio State to do similarly. If there’s one thing this game is destined to bring it’s points in large numbers. Ohio State come into this game 5-4-1 ATS, while Maryland enter at 4-6. Expect both teams to inch towards .500 here on Saturday.

Pick: Maryland +27.5 -110 (1u) & o63.5 -110 (1u)

Teaser: Oregon State -2 & Iowa +8.5 -120 (1u)

I’m writing this play fairly differently compared to how I usually do it, but I want to quickly break down each of these teams. Both teams are two of the best in the country at covering the spread. Oregon State is now 8-2 ATS while Iowa is 6-4, and both are given phenomenal numbers to tease. Oregon State travels to Arizona State, whose defense can’t stop a soul in the PAC 12. Oregon State’s offense has been dominating opponents recently, losing only once in their last four games in a game it should’ve won if it weren’t for turnovers against Washington. The same Washington team that beat Oregon this past weekend.

Iowa plays Minnesota on the road this weekend in a game that might have the lowest total in college football history at 32.5. Given Iowa is a small favorite, using the Wong teaser method to bump them up to a two possession underdog gives them plenty of wiggle room in what should be a very low-scoring game. Iowa might win outright, but a 17-10 loss would still mean they cover. I believe this is my first teaser of the year, but I like both of these squads to cover their respective line heavily, and their lines are very favorable to teasing.

Joseph Cress - USA TODAY Sports

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